维持增持评级 ，维持盈利预测：因公司持续降本增效，原油价格强于市场预期，我们维持公司2024/2025/2026 年EPS 为0.95/1.01/1.03元，综合考虑，我们采用EV/EBITDA 估值，可比公司EV/EBITDA平均为5.57，2024 年预计公司EBITDA 为335899 百万元，考虑到分红派息因素，我们维持公司目标价为10.54 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's business performance in the first three quarters was the best during the same period. It continued to implement “increase storage and production, stabilize oil and gas”. The new energy business developed rapidly, and overseas markets progressed steadily.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the increase rating and maintain profit forecast: As the company continues to reduce costs and increase efficiency, crude oil prices are stronger than market expectations, we maintain the company's 2024/2025/2026 EPS at 0.95/1.01/1.03 yuan. After comprehensive considerations, we used EV/EBITDA estimates. Comparable to the company's EV/EBITDA average was 5.57, and the company's EBITDA is expected to be 335,899 million yuan in 2024. Considering dividend payout factors, we maintain the company's target price of 10.54 yuan to maintain “additional holdings” ratings.
The business performance for the first three quarters continued to be the best in the same period: the company achieved net profit of 132.518 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, or +0.66% year over year. Among them, Q3 achieved net profit of 43.911 billion yuan, -5.31% year over year, and +2.29% month over month. The three quarterly results were in line with market expectations, and the business performance for the first three quarters continued to reach the best level in the same period in history. By section, oil and gas sales and operating profits for the first three quarters were 526/12.8/0.25/2.8/8.46 billion yuan, compared to +11.5%/-86.1%/-13%/-55.8%/+58%, and +8.03%/-63.86%/-87.18%/-16.31%/+88.53% month-on-month.
Oil and gas production is growing steadily, and the new energy business is developing rapidly: in the first three quarters of 2024, the company's oil and gas equivalent production reached 1.342 billion barrels, up 2.0% year on year; producing 3.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas that can be sold, up 4.0% year on year. Domestic oil and gas equivalent production was 1.197 billion barrels, up 2.3% year on year; 3.67 trillion cubic feet of natural gas can be produced and sold, up 4.4% year on year. The oil and gas and new energy business achieved operating profit of 144.26 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7% over the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company strengthened cost control. The operating cost per unit of oil and gas was 11.49 US dollars/barrel, maintaining a cost advantage.
The overseas market is progressing steadily: in the first three quarters, the amount of new contracts signed by the company's overseas business increased 16% year on year. Among them, the external market share increased by 37% year on year. The amount of contracts signed in 11 countries all exceeded 100 million US dollars, and the share of new contracts signed in the external market reached 79%. It successfully signed petroleum product sharing contracts for block 14 and 15 of the Suriname Shallow Sea to accelerate the integrated development of oil and gas exploration and development with new energy sources. CNPC Great Wall Drilling successfully won the bid for a service contract with a total value of 6.2 billion yuan in the Kuwaiti market, setting a record for the highest single amount of CNPC overseas drilling rigs.
Risk warning: There is a risk that crude oil prices will fluctuate greatly, and the recovery of chemicals is lower than expected.
