Investors in Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.4% to close at US$206 following the release of its quarterly results. Assurant reported US$3.0b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.55 beat expectations, being 2.0% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Assurant's five analysts is for revenues of US$12.3b in 2025. This reflects a credible 4.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 23% to US$17.55. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$12.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$17.36 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$224. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Assurant at US$240 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$194. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Assurant is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Assurant's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Assurant'shistorical trends, as the 3.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 3.9% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that Assurant is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Assurant's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Assurant analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Assurant , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
