As you might know, Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (NASDAQ:TNDM) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. Results overall were credible, with revenues arriving 8.9% better than analyst forecasts at US$244m. Higher revenues also resulted in lower statutory losses, which were US$0.35 per share, some 8.9% smaller than the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Tandem Diabetes Care from 19 analysts is for revenues of US$1.00b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 38% to US$1.20. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$988.4m and losses of US$1.15 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Tandem Diabetes Care after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.
The consensus price target held steady at US$51.45, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Tandem Diabetes Care analyst has a price target of US$75.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$18.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 16% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 8.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that Tandem Diabetes Care is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Tandem Diabetes Care. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$51.45, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Tandem Diabetes Care going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Tandem Diabetes Care you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
