Q3 The growth rate of revenue and profit changed from negative to positive. 24Q3 revenue +1.1% YoY, net profit to mother +3.8% YoY; ICBC 24Q1-3 revenue -3.8% YoY, net profit to mother +0.13% YoY. The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was +0.56pct year over year to 13.95%.

Interest spreads have stabilized. The company's 24Q1-3 net interest spread remained stable at 1.39%. The 24Q3 interest spread was +8bp to 1.41% month-on-month. According to estimates, the return on interest-bearing assets in a single quarter was -6 bps month-on-month, the interest-bearing debt cost ratio was -15 bps month-on-month, and the month-on-month decline in debt-side costs supported the net interest spread.

Asset quality remains stable. The defect rate remained flat at 1.35% month-on-month, and the provision coverage rate was -2.4pct to 216.2%.

The annualized cost of credit was 0.63%, down 0.07pct from mid-year. Accrued impairment losses decreased year over year.

It continues to contribute a major increase in public loans. At the end of 24Q3, corporate loans were +8.97%, including +9.51% YoY to public loans and +2.61% YoY to personal loans, continuing to contribute the main increase to public loans.

Investment advice. We forecast EPS of 0.97, 0.99, 1.02 yuan in 2024-2026, and net profit growth rates of -0.50%, 1.50%, and 2.76%. We obtained a reasonable value of 7.1 yuan based on the DDM model; according to the PB-ROE model, the 2024E PB valuation was 0.67 times (0.61 times that of a comparable company), and the corresponding reasonable value was 6.84 yuan. Therefore, the reasonable value range is 6.84-7.1 yuan (corresponding to 2024 PE is 7.02-7.29 times, corresponding PE is 6.14 times that of the same company), maintaining the “superior to market” rating.

Risk warning: The solvency of enterprises has declined, asset quality has deteriorated dramatically; financial supervision policies have undergone major changes.