Wondering which stocks are likely to perform well for the rest of the year as the US waits for Donald Trump to take office again next January? Looking back at the market situation after Trump's first election can provide some clues. CNBC found that between November 7, 2016 — the day before that year's presidential election — and the end of that year, many of the best-performing S&P 500 stocks may rise sharply before Trump returns to the White House on January 20 next year due to policy reasons. Several previous winners have come from industries such as banking, industry, and energy that are seen to benefit from Trump's support for deregulation policies. Other stocks are growth stocks with high beta coefficients. Such stocks benefit from widespread market gains and benefit from corporate tax rates.

Take banks, for example. Bank of America analyst Ibrahim Punawala said financial stocks should rise again before the end of the year given expectations of reduced government regulations and reduced antitrust challenges. “We think the results of the US election... were positive for bank stocks,” Punnawala told clients.

At the same time, the energy sector is likely to be more complex. Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett pointed out that while steel and oil and gas companies have benefited, renewable energy stocks have been damaged, there are “extreme winners and losers.” Citigroup (C.N)'s Andrew Kaplowitz expressed similar sentiments in a report to clients on Wednesday. “We believe topics viewed as beneficiaries of Trump's presidency include energy-related exposure and industrial return,” Kaplowitz wrote, referring to companies that benefited from manufacturing and production returning to the US from overseas. “In contrast, companies seen as beneficiaries under 'eco-friendly' governments may face relative pressure in the short term... although we believe the long-term benefits of these stocks should remain intact over time.”

Targa Resources (TRGP.N) was a dark horse in the energy sector in 2016. The stock also performed well this year until 2024, with an increase of 116%, excluding dividends. While history reflects potential for a rise at the end of the year, Wall Street isn't that sure about the next 12 months. Although most analysts in the LSEG survey gave a buy rating, the typical price target suggests that Targa stock will pull back by more than 4% over the next year.

KeyCorp (KEY.N) was one of the banks that made the list, but Citibank analyst Keith Horowitz warned investors to be careful. The Cleveland-based finance company performed well on Wednesday, but its valuation was “relatively adequate,” he noted. As a result, he then downgraded the rating from “buy” to “neutral.” As of 2024, the stock is up 33%, not including a generous 4.1% dividend, putting it on track to end two consecutive years of decline. Most analysts surveyed by LSEG hold buy ratings, but KeyCorp's stock is expected to fall by more than 5% after this year's rebound. However, the historical performance in 2016 provided a more positive guideline. KeyCorp shares rose more than 25% between November 7, 2016 and the end of the year.

Chemex (KMX.N) is a cyclical stock that should benefit from deregulation and the rise of high-beta stocks. Between the day before the 2016 election and the start of trading in the second year, the used car dealer's stock price rose 25%. Despite an increase of around 4% on Wednesday, CarMax still declined slightly in 2024, far below market returns. According to LSEG data, most analysts rate it as a buy, and the general price target indicates that its share price is expected to rise by about 6% within the next year.