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重温特朗普行情:哪些股票将在2024年再现辉煌?

Reviewing the Trump market: which stocks will shine again in 2024?

Golden10 Data ·  Nov 8 16:35

As President Trump is set to be re-elected as the President of the usa in January next year, investors can't help but look back at the market performance when Trump was first elected in 2016, seeking investment opportunities.

Want to know which stocks may perform well in the remaining time of this year while waiting for Donald Trump to return to office in January 2024 in the usa? Reviewing the market situation after Trump's first election can provide some clues. CNBC found that between November 7, 2016 — the day before that year's presidential election — and the end of that year, many of the best-performing s&p 500 stocks likely to see significant increases before Trump returns to the White House on January 20 were from sectors viewed as benefiting from his pro-de-regulation policies, such as banks, industrials, and energy. Other stocks were high beta growth stocks, which benefited from broad market rallies and corporate tax rates.

Taking banks as an example. Bank of america analyst Ibrahim Poonawala stated that given the expectations for reduced government regulation and fewer antitrust challenges, financial stocks should rise again before the year's end. 'We believe the outcome of the us election is positive for bank stocks,' Poonawala told clients.

Meanwhile, the nengyuanhangye may be more complex. Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett noted that steel and oil & gas companies benefit, while wind power stocks are harmed, resulting in 'extreme winners and losers.' Citigroup’s Andrew Kaplowitz expressed similar views in a report to clients on Wednesday. 'We believe that the themes viewed as beneficiaries of President Trump's term include energy-related exposure and industrial reshoring,' Kaplowitz wrote, referring to companies that benefit from the return of manufacturing and production from overseas to the usa. 'Conversely, companies viewed as beneficiaries under an eco-friendly concept government may face relative pressure in the short term... although we believe the long-term favorable factors for these stocks should remain intact over time.'

Targa Resources (TRGP.N) was a dark horse in the 2016 energy sector. The stock has performed well this year through 2024, rising 116% excluding dividends. Although history reflects the potential for a year-end upsurge, Wall Street is not so certain about the next 12 months. While most analysts in the LSEG survey gave a buy rating, the typical target price implies that Targa shares will pull back more than 4% over the next year.

KeyCorp (KEY.N) is one of the banks entering the list, but Citigroup analyst Keith Horowitz cautioned investors to be careful. He noted that the Cleveland-based financial company performed well on Wednesday, but its valuation has become 'relatively full.' Therefore, he subsequently downgraded the rating from 'buy' to 'neutral.' By 2024, this stock gained 33%, excluding a generous 4.1% dividend, making it likely to end a two-year decline. Most analysts in the LSEG survey hold a buy rating, but expect KeyCorp's stock to decline by more than 5% after this year's rebound. However, the historical performance of 2016 provides a more positive guide. From November 7, 2016, to the end of the year, KeyCorp's stock price rose by more than 25%.

Carmax (KMX.N) is a cyclical stock that should benefit from de-regulation and a rise in high beta stocks. Between the day before the 2016 election and the start of trading the following year, the used car dealer's share price rose by 25%. Despite rising about 4% on Wednesday, CarMax is still slightly down in 2024, far below market returns. According to LSEG data, most analysts rate it as a buy, and the general target price indicates its stock price is expected to rise about 6% over the next year.

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