自主新能源增长驱动下公司10 月销量同环比双增。公司10 月销量同/环比+4.07%/+17.66%，同比增幅由负转正，环比增幅扩大3.73pct，主要系公司自主新能源产品驱动，10 月批发销量8.53万辆，同/环比+48.56%/+56.80%，1-10 月累计销量53.29 万辆，同比+46.37%。在新能源“香格里拉”计划指引下，公司旗下新能源品牌销量逐步增长，接替自主燃油车成为公司转型成长的主要驱动力。分品牌来看，深蓝汽车10 月交付27862 辆，同/环比+79.6%/+22.7% ， 阿维塔10 月交付10056 辆， 同/ 环比+256.0%/+121.6%，长安启源10 月交付超18000 辆，9 月交付11615辆。Incidents:
Changan Automobile released its October 2024 production and sales report: the company sold 0.2508 million vehicles in October, +4.07%/+17.66% month-on-month, and cumulative wholesale sales volume in January-October was 2.1558 million vehicles, +2.14% year over year. Among them, autonomous passenger cars sold 0.168 million units in October, +3.45%/+29.91%, cumulative wholesale sales volume in January-October was 1.3288 million units, -0.91% year over year; joint venture brands sold 0.0273 million units in October, -14.75%/-9.64% month-on-month, and cumulative wholesale sales volume in January-October was 0.2513 million units, or -1.18% YoY.
Opinions:
Driven by the growth of independent new energy sources, the company's sales volume increased in October compared to the same period last month. The company's October sales volume was +4.07%/+17.66%, and the year-on-year increase changed from negative to positive, with a month-on-month increase of 3.73 pcts, mainly driven by the company's independent new energy products. The wholesale sales volume in October was 0.0853 million vehicles, +48.56%/+56.80% month-on-month, and cumulative sales volume from January to October was 0.5329 million vehicles, +46.37% year over year. Under the guidance of the new energy “Shangri-La” program, the sales volume of the company's new energy brands gradually increased, and succeeding autonomous fuel vehicles became the main driving force for the company's transformation and growth. By brand, Deep Blue delivered 27,862 vehicles in October, +79.6%/+22.7%, Avita delivered 1,056 vehicles in October, +256.0%/+121.6% month-on-month, Changan Qiyuan delivered more than 18,000 vehicles in October, and 11,615 vehicles in September.
Major new products were launched intensively, and order performance was outstanding. By brand, Deep Blue S05, a subsidiary of Deep Blue Auto, was officially launched on October 20. It is equipped with personalized features such as a 4K smart gimbal camera and megapixel headlights supported by Huawei XPIXEL. The price was 0.1199-0.1499 million yuan, and orders exceeded 0.01 million units within 10 days of launch. Furthermore, Deep Blue Auto's total orders in October exceeded 0.036 million units. Avita 12 was officially launched on November 2. The first batch was equipped with Ningde Era Xiaoyao Super Hybrid Battery and Huawei Qiankun Smart Driving ADS 3.0. It provides two power types, extended-range and pure electric, with a price of 0.2699-0.4299 million yuan. The Avita07 released in October has been on the market for 17 days, with cumulative orders exceeding 0.025 million units. The intensive release of new vehicles and their excellent order performance is expected to accelerate the company's transformation into new energy sources.
Overseas sales remained high, and the production capacity layout was gradually implemented. The company's own brands sold 0.0308 million vehicles overseas in October, +33.86%/+0.92% month-on-month, with sales exceeding 0.03 million units for 2 consecutive months. The cumulative sales volume for January-October was 0.3186 million vehicles, +61.81% year-on-year. The company continues to increase overseas investment. The Thai right-hand drive production base is expected to be put into operation in the first quarter of 2025. The production capacity is expected to reach 0.1 million vehicles in the first year of operation. It is expected to increase to 0.2 million vehicles in the future, which is expected to radiate the global right-hand rudder market and develop new overseas sales.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's new energy transformation has accelerated, independent new energy sales have performed well, and the completion of overseas production bases is expected to further open up global market space. Considering the intense competition in the domestic passenger car market, the pressure on the company's fuel vehicle business, and the impact on the company's profitability during the energy transition period, we lowered the company's profit expectations. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 6.172/8.109/10.977 billion yuan, respectively (the original forecast was 9.946/11.991/13.742 billion yuan). The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 23.1/17.6/13.0 times. The average PE value of a comparable company is 25.5/ 18.2/15.0 times, the company's valuation level is lower than the average of comparable companies, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomics fall short of expectations; sales of new products fall short of expectations; overseas production base construction falls short of expectations; price increases of upstream raw materials; geopolitical risks.
