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市场质疑政策难执行 交易员对“特朗普交易”热情降温

Market doubts policy difficult to implement, traders' enthusiasm for the "Trump trade" cools down.

Zhitong Finance ·  15:10

After the initial rush into the 'Trump trade', some investors in certain asset classes are gradually losing enthusiasm as they doubt whether Trump will push forward his ambitious tariff proposals as the President of the usa.

Financial APP noticed that after the initial rush into the 'Trump trade', some investors in certain asset classes are gradually losing enthusiasm as they doubt whether Trump will push forward his ambitious tariff proposals as the President of the usa.

At the close on Thursday, the usd made a sharp reversal from its post-election rally, with little change in Friday's trading. U.S. Treasury bond yields, after two days of volatility, also returned to recent ranges.

As investors weigh whether Trump's policies will fulfill his campaign promises, these actions suggest that market volatility may arise. As market fluctuations subside, attention is turning to other major events: the Fed's loose policy path and China's fiscal stimulus plan.

"There is a feeling that even the most optimistic Trump trade investors are taking a step back to think: Has the bet gone too far at this point?" said Vishnu Varathan, Chief Economist and Strategist at MUFG Bank in Singapore. Traders are "thinking about execution, and how to effectively communicate some of his policies."

A key question on investors' minds is how much of Trump's threat to impose tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods will materialize. Some are also taking profits in their trades, including call options on the usd and put options on U.S. Treasury bonds, which performed very well earlier this week as the market expected Trump's policies to stimulate inflation and keep interest rates at higher levels for longer.

As doubts begin to spread, assets seen to benefit from Trump are basically consolidating after the post-election surge. The U.S. stock market is an exception, continuing to rise on Thursday amid speculation that the new government will support American companies.

Due to the President-elect's supportive stance on cryptos, bitcoin has soared to record levels and has since seen little change. The Bloomberg usd index rose by less than 0.1% on Friday. After the Fed's rate cut, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remained at 4.33%, pulling back slightly from Wednesday's gains.

However, according to Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets (RBC Capital Markets), such trades may regain momentum.

If the Republican Party continues to control the United States House of Representatives, the final tally is still ongoing, and the resulting landslide victory will pave the way for Trump's tax cuts, immigration, and trade policies, and confirm his nominations.

RBC Capital's Asia Forex Strategy Director, Alvin Tan, said: "Many doubt whether Trump will really implement the policies he proposed, especially in terms of tariffs." However, this sentiment may be temporary because the market has underestimated Trump's trade policies - the U.S. president has extensive power to impose import tariffs.

Stock Selection

For the stock market, the momentum is more optimistic. The US stock market hit another historic high this week, with small-cap stocks and regional bank indices soaring, these companies are the most affected by domestic economic growth. Investors expect that under Trump's second government, these companies will thrive. Trump promises to boost business profits while stimulating economic growth.

The situation in Asia is not as clear, the extent of China's fiscal stimulus is crucial to the stock market outlook.

Evercore ISI analyst Neo Wang and others wrote in a report: "With Trump's victory, we believe there is a much higher likelihood of strong fiscal stimulus measures, including things retained for Trump." "As long as Beijing continues to do the right thing domestically and leverages Trump's foreign policy, we believe the Chinese economy can weather his tariff storm."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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