China Fortune Financial App learned that Haitong Securities released research reports stating that there may be a recovery in retail terminal demand in the fourth quarter, but there is still some short-term pressure on performance. It is recommended to pay attention to sub-sectors with significant marginal changes (especially leading companies). Among them: supermarkets are starting a new round of optimization and transformation period, with the preference for market leaders; department stores have shown some recovery in end data since October, with potential marginal improvement; beauty skincare products, as high-quality products in the positive cycle, have bottomed out in valuation and offer good value for leading companies; jewelry is expected to face certain pressure in the fourth quarter due to end demand, awaiting a turning point; cross-border e-commerce is under pressure from exchange rates and other factors, with overall profits under short-term pressure, and leading companies showing stronger resilience.

The main points of Haitong Securities are as follows:

Retail and Supermarkets: Under short-term operational pressure, supermarkets are embarking on a new round of optimization and transformation.

In the third quarter, the consumer environment remains weak, offline retail foot traffic continues to face overall pressure, and under the direct operation model, rigid expenses lead to greater profit decline.

Department Stores: In the third quarter, the total revenue of the sector decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 33.6% (-1.0 percentage points), an expense ratio of 31.3% (+0.8 percentage points), a non-net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 89% year-on-year, and a non-net profit margin of 0.1% (-1.0 percentage points).

Supermarkets: In the third quarter, the total revenue of the sector decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.6% (-1.2 percentage points), an expense ratio of 25.5% (+0.5 percentage points), a non-net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 46.4% year-on-year, and a non-net profit margin of -3.8% (-1.5 percentage points). On the operational front, Yonghui, Bubugao, and other supermarkets are steadily advancing the adjustment of the "Pang Donglai" model, having made progress in phases, with attention on the subsequent effects of transformation.

Gold jewelry: The sharp rise in gold prices affecting end sales, waiting for the turning point in demand.

Industry: In 3Q24, the consumption of gold jewelry was 130 tons (-29%), and gold bar consumption was 69 tons (-9%). Overall, the decline in gold jewelry consumption compared to 2Q has narrowed, but the pressure from the sharp rise in gold prices on end sales persists, waiting for the turning point to appear.

Channels: With the sharp rise in gold prices causing a slowdown in sales, franchisees are under pressure, leading to an increase in store openings and closures, resulting in a slowdown in the net increase of stores. In 3Q24, Chow Tai Seng had a net decrease of 1 franchise store (adding 155 stores, closing 156 stores), and a net increase of 6 self-operated stores (adding 22 stores, closing 16 stores); China Gold had a net decrease of 51 franchise stores (increasing 10 stores, closing 61 stores), with 3 more self-operated stores opened and 3 closed; The "CHJ Guangdong Chj Industry" jewelry franchise added 50 stores.

Performance: In 3Q24, the sector's total revenue/gross margin decreased by -25.2%/-28.1% year-on-year, with gross margin-period expenses down by -42.1% year-on-year; the sector's net profit attributable to parent company/adjusted net profit attributable to parent company fell by -33.7%/-43.3% year-on-year.

Beauty care: Growth differentiation, strong channels and strong brands solidify competitiveness.

Medical beauty: New materials lead the growth, with the sector's net margin improving year-on-year. In 3Q24, the sector's total revenue increased by 4.1% year-on-year, up 5.7pct from 2Q24; the sector's net profit attributable to parent company increased by 6.9% year-on-year, with the parent company's net margin at 28.21%, up by 0.7pct year-on-year. Excluding Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited, the sector's revenue grew by 12.3% year-on-year, net profits increased by 18.4%, and net margin increased to 43.99%, up by 2.3pct. Gross margin increased by 1.1pct, optimizing sales expense ratio.

Cosmetics: Under pressure during the off-season, focusing on online investment to strengthen brand awareness. According to figures from Laibudanlu and Chanmofang, the sales of cosmetics on Tmall in 3Q saw a -14.3% year-on-year growth, while the sales on Douyin increased by 28.9% year-on-year; as e-commerce promotions extended, the fully released consumer demand made the suction effect more prominent. In 3Q24, the sector's revenue decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, with the parent company's net profit falling by 47.5% year-on-year, and the net margin at 6.1% down by 5.1pct year-on-year. Sales expense ratio increased by 6.7pct to 42.8%, management expense ratio increased by 1.1pct to 8.0%, and R&D expense ratio increased by 0.8pct to 3.7%. Haitong Securities believes that the industry is transitioning into long-term brand competition, focusing on single product iteration, strengthening brand awareness, breaking through consumer circles, and the continuous increase in platform marketing promotion costs, prompting companies to refine their operational capabilities.

Cross-border e-commerce: High revenue growth in 3Q24, with diversified profit performance.

Revenue and Profit: In 3Q24, the sector's total operating revenue increased by 46.6% year-on-year, with a sequential growth rate of 8.5pct, mainly driven by new product launches, category expansion, and channel expansion. The sector's non-GAAP net profit increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a sequential growth rate decrease of 7.5pct. The sector's non-GAAP net margin was 4.6%, a 2.0pct year-on-year decline.

Gross Margin and Expense Ratio: In 3Q24, the sector's gross margin was 40.0%, a 1.9pct year-on-year decrease, likely due to rising marine transportation costs, exchange rate fluctuations, and changes in business structure. The sector's expense ratio was 34.5%, a 1.0pct year-on-year increase, primarily driven by increased promotion and research and development efforts, leading to higher sales and R&D expense ratios.

Regarding Symbol.

A-share Recommendations: Zhejiang China Commodities City Group (600415.SH), yonghui superstores (601933.SH), anker innovations technology (300866.SZ), with a focus on wangfujing group (600859.SH), jiajiayue group (603708.SH), chengdu hongqi chain (002697.SZ), chongqing department store (600729.SH), proya cosmetics (603605.SH), dengkang dental (001328.SZ), huakai yibai technology (300592.SZ), lao feng xiang (600612.SH).

H-share Recommendations: Meituan-W (03690), miniso (09896), giant biotechnology (02367), with a focus on laopu gold (06181), alibaba-SW (09988).

Risk warning

Consumer remains weak; new business formats are diverging; industry competition is intensifying; regulatory policies are uncertain.