How will US work visas change in the Trump 2.0 era? What impact will it have on the global IT service industry?

On November 6, Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider and his team released a report saying that it is expected that the US Immigration Service (USCIS) will implement stricter rules for foreigners to obtain H-1B visas by the end of 2024. Among them, the most notable change may be tightening the definition of “specialty type” and limiting the eligibility of candidates not directly related to their degree or position to obtain work permits.

Currently, under the strict visa regulations of the Biden administration, Kochi, Accenture, IBM, and Indian IT service companies have reduced their dependence on H-1B employees, and demand for such employees has been adjusted to a stable level.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that if the Trump administration adds additional restrictions on H-1B applications, it may cause delays in hiring US customers, which may increase customer service costs in the short term. Although major outsourcing companies are less dependent on H-1B than before, they may face profit pressure in the short term due to additional restrictions.

An H-1B visa is a visa issued by the United States to a person engaged in professional and technical work. The company that admits the candidate must prove that the candidate meets the education and skill requirements and ensure that the wages offered meet or exceed market prices.

During Trump's administration from 2017 to 2020, the H-1B policy became stricter. After Biden came to power, some strict rules were lifted, but after October 2023, stricter rules were implemented.

Total H-1B approvals decreased

Goldman Sachs said that the pattern of H-1B sponsor companies is changing, and IT outsourcing companies are no longer leading in the number of work permits approved.

In 2017-2018, IT outsourcing companies received far more H-1B approvals than big tech companies, but in the past decade, as the number of employees in the US grew significantly, big tech companies increased their H-1B sponsorships significantly. Currently, big tech companies and IT outsourcing companies receive almost equal amounts of H-1B approvals.

Due to increased restrictions, IT service companies have decreased their reliance on H-1B employees.

Goldman Sachs has observed that the company's H-1B approvals have leveled off under the Biden administration's stricter regulations — regulations that may be reshaping the company's long-term dependency on H-1B employees.

Since peaking from 2016 to 2017, total H-1B approvals from Kochi, Accenture, IBM, and Indian IT service companies have gradually declined under a series of increasingly stringent H-1B regulations, and there has been a significant decline in H-1B extensions and renewals, as the new policy favors more strict scrutiny of H-1B extensions.

However, despite a downward trend in total approvals, H-1B approvals from Kochi, Accenture, IBM, and Indian IT services companies seem to have stabilized in recent years. Goldman Sachs believes this indicates that the company has adjusted H-1B demand to a stable level in recent years.

H-1B sponsor companies face stricter regulation

Goldman Sachs believes that although IT service companies currently rely less on H-1B, stricter H-1B policies may still affect the company's operations and put pressure on short-term profits.

The amount of pressure on companies' profits over the next few years may depend on how strict the Trump administration's new H-1B policy is. For example, during the Trump administration from 2017 to 2020, Kochi's sales costs rose and gross margin declined due to stricter H-1B policies (higher wages and fewer approval extensions).

Currently, as H-1B sponsor companies face stricter regulation, they have adjusted their recruitment strategies — significantly reducing the recruitment ratio for entry-level positions and giving priority to candidates with higher skill levels and more work experience, as these job seekers have higher salaries and are easier to obtain work permits.

From 2017 to 2024, LCA data shows that companies such as Kochi, Accenture, and IBM have steadily raised the salaries of H-1B employees.