今年以来公司销售费用率持续下降。公司一季度销售费用率27.2%，中报的销售费用率26.2%，三季报的销售费用率25.3%，呈现持续下滑的趋势。以年度维度来看，公司的销售费用率从2016 年开始持续下降，今年已经是连续第8 年下降。2016 年公司销售费用率32.9%，2023 年销售费用率26.8%，2024 年三季报销售费用率25.3%。Incident: The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 19.07 billion yuan, +19.5% year over year, net profit to mother 4.75 billion yuan, +24.5% year on year, net profit not attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 4.7 billion yuan, or +25.6% year over year. Revenue for the third quarter of 2024 was 5.26 billion yuan, +13.4% YoY; Net profit attributable to mother was 1.17 billion yuan, +13.6% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company after deduction was 1.16 billion yuan, +14.5% YoY. In the face of the overall weakness of the liquor industry, Gujing Gongjiu maintained a good revenue and profit growth rate in the third quarter.
The company's revenue and net profit growth rate continued to decline in the three quarters of this year, but it still maintained double-digit growth. The company's revenue grew 25.9% in the first quarter of this year, 16.8% in the second quarter, and 13.4% in the third quarter. The continuous decline in revenue growth reflects increasing pressure on growth. Net profit grew 33.1% in the first quarter, 24.5% in the second quarter, and 14.2% in the third quarter. The main reason for the quarterly decline in net profit growth was the decline in revenue growth.
The contract debt at the end of the third quarter was 1.94 billion, a significant decrease compared to the end of the third quarter of 2023, and a decrease compared to the 2024 semi-annual report. The company reported contract debt of 3.32 billion for the third quarter of 2023 and 2.22 billion for the interim report of the company in 2024. At the end of the third quarter, the company's contract debt decreased by 1.38 billion yuan year on year, a significant decrease. The amount of contract debt is related to various factors such as the company's payment pace, product price increases, dealer willingness to pay, and terminal sales.
The company's sales expenses rate has continued to decline since this year. The company's sales expense ratio for the first quarter was 27.2%, the sales expense ratio for the interim report was 26.2%, and the sales expense ratio for the third quarter report was 25.3%, showing a continuous downward trend. On an annual basis, the company's sales expenses rate has continued to decline since 2016, and this year is the 8th consecutive year of decline. The company's sales expense ratio in 2016 was 32.9%, the 2023 sales expense rate was 26.8%, and the 2024 three-quarter sales expense ratio was 25.3%.
Investment advice: We expect the company to achieve operating income of 23.97/27.95/33.01 billion yuan in 2024-2026, +18.4%/+16.6%/+18.1% year over year; net profit to mother of 5.91/7.45/9.16 billion yuan, +28.8%/+26.0%/+23.0% year-on-year, and ESP of 11.2/14.1/17.3 yuan respectively. As a leading liquor company in Anhui Province, the company is highly competitive and has a “buy” rating.