Financial and Economic Intelligence App learned that Shanxi Securities released a research report stating that the limited increase in coal supply in the fourth quarter, seasonal decrease in hydropower and new energy output, under the game coal supply and demand are expected to maintain relative balance; at the same time, the price difference between imported coal and domestic supply is not significant, coupled with the increasing overseas energy demand in winter, the impact of imported coal may weaken. With limited supply increase and continued demand expectations, it is expected that there is limited downward space for coal prices in winter. Multiple favorable policies from various departments are expected to enhance market sentiment with incremental funds entering the market, focusing on stable high dividend stocks, low P/B ratio targets, and elastic metallurgical coal stocks.

Key viewpoints of Shanxi Securities are as follows:

Data breakdown

Volume and price: In January-September 2024, import volume increased year-on-year, with increases in both September year-on-year and month-on-month. The cumulative import volume of coal and lignite in January-September increased by 12% year-on-year; in September, the monthly growth was 12.93% year-on-year and 3.82% month-on-month. The overall import prices of coal in all categories for January-September were lower than the same period last year but remained relatively high; prices decreased month-on-month in September. The average import price of coal in all categories for January-September 2024 was $99 per ton, a decrease of 11.34% from last year's average. The price of imported coal in September was $91 per ton, a 3.53% year-on-year decrease and a 4.31% month-on-month decrease.

Specifically: Regarding thermal coal, import volume increased year-on-year in January-September, while prices decreased year-on-year; in September, the import volume increased year-on-year but decreased month-on-month, with prices remaining stable. As for coking coal, import volume increased year-on-year in January-September, while prices decreased year-on-year; in September, import volume decreased from the previous month while the price increased year-on-year but decreased month-on-month. Concerning lignite, the import volume increased year-on-year in January-September, with a decrease in prices year-on-year; in September, the import volume increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while prices decreased month-on-month. For anthracite, the import volume decreased year-on-year in January-September, with a decrease in prices year-on-year; the import volume increased year-on-year in September but decreased month-on-month, with prices also decreasing month-on-month.

The overall coal import data for January-September 2024 met expectations, with a month-on-month increase in September and varying performance across different types of coal.

In terms of total imports, since 2024, the import growth rate of coal has decreased significantly compared to 2023, in line with expectations. In terms of import structure, the basic structure of imported coal continues the pattern of 2023, with the proportion of coking coal increasing, the proportion of anthracite decreasing, and thermal coal and lignite basically returning to the levels of 2019 and 2020.

In September, apart from coking coal, thermal coal, lignite, and anthracite all achieved year-on-year growth, mainly due to the weakening impact of domestic thermal power generation being squeezed by hydroelectric power, a significant recovery in thermal power, and increased demand for replenishing coal stockpiles. In terms of import prices, coal import prices remain relatively high, with an overall 4.31% decrease in September; looking at different types of coal, prices of all coal types except thermal coal decreased month-on-month. Combining quantity and price data, domestic coal supply has continued to structurally contract since 2024, with a slight increase in domestic coal supply in September along with coastal shipping capacity constraints leading to a continued high level of imports in terms of quantity and price.

Domestic supply has shown some recovery, and the foundation of the 'restriction of imported coal' policy has been strengthened. In the past two months, the coal production in Shanxi has shown a marginal recovery trend, and the domestic supply gap continues to narrow. Under the premise of unchanged demand expectations, the conditions related to the introduction of policies restricting imported coal will be enhanced.

Regarding Symbol.

Stable high dividend stocks: The central bank's SFISF is more bullish for collateral prices, and high dividend stocks can to a certain extent hedge leveraged capital costs, providing an arbitrage space. Therefore, relatively bullish on stable high dividend coal component stocks in the CSI 300 index like China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH), Yankuang Energy (600188.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH). In terms of low P/B ratio, considering relevant policies such as 'shareholding loans,' 'repurchase loans,' and 'distressed trading constraints,' valuation recovery can be expected for low P/B ratio or distressed symbols like Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture (600123.SH), Gansu Energy Chemical (600308.SH), Shanghai Datun Energy Resources (600508.SH).

Metallurgical coal: Fiscal and real estate-related policies are expected to boost expectations for downstream coking coal demand. Currently, there is an expectation of rising prices for metallurgical coal, benefiting elastic metallurgical coal stocks such as Shanxi Lu’an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. (601699.SH), Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining (601666.SH), Huaibei Mining Holdings (600985.SH), Shanxi Coal International Energy Group (600546.SH).

Risk warning

Significant changes in the interest rate environment, domestic demand below expectations, significant increase in domestic supply, significant increase in coal imports from Mongolia, substantial increase in coking coal imports from Australia, alleviation of transportation bottlenecks in Russia's eastern route, substantial coal exports from Indonesia to China, leading to a sharp decline in international coal prices.