根据公司三季报业绩情况，2024 年Q1-Q3 销售毛利率和净利率分别为28.27%/8.60%，单三季度，公司实现归母净利润12.95 亿元，同比增长96.49%；销售毛利率和净利率分别为28.32%/6.95%。其中，净利率同比去年同期大幅提升2.89pct。费用率方面，公司2024 年Q1-Q3 销售/管理/研发费用率分别为8.03%/3.40%/6.60%，较去年同期费用率分别下降0.09pct/0.07pct/0.93pct，公司费用控制能力有所提升。2] 024 Q3 Report
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. Total operating income (including interest income) for the first three quarters of 2024 was 58.361 billion yuan, up 3.92% year on year; realized net profit of 4.868 billion yuan, up 19.66% year on year; and net cash flow from operating activities was 12.375 billion yuan, up 151.74% year on year.
Expense control is better, and profitability improved significantly in Q3 2024
According to the company's three-quarter performance report, the gross sales margin and net margin for Q1-Q3 of 2024 were 28.27%/8.60%, respectively. In the third quarter of a single quarter, the company achieved net profit of 1.295 billion yuan, an increase of 96.49% over the previous year; gross sales margin and net margin were 28.32%/6.95%, respectively. Among them, the net interest rate increased by 2.89pct compared to the same period last year. In terms of cost ratio, the company's Q1-Q3 sales/management/R&D expenses ratio in 2024 was 8.03%/3.40%/6.60% respectively, down 0.09pct/0.07pct/0.93pct from the same period last year, and the company's ability to control expenses was improved.
Core products are highly competitive, and electrification strategies help high growth
The company has developed over the years, gradually moving from the domestic market to the overseas market, and directly competes with manufacturers such as the international giant Caterpillar. According to the company's interim report, the company's excavator sales have been at the top of the domestic list for 13 consecutive years, leading the world in concrete machinery, and crawler cranes account for more than 40% of the domestic market, ranking first in the domestic market for large and medium-sized products. As the industry cycle bottomed+equipment updates continue to advance, the company's core products are expected to fully benefit. Meanwhile, the electrification strategy continues to advance. In the first half of 2024, the company made significant progress in its electric construction machinery business, and the SY215E medium-sized electric excavator successfully entered the European high-end market. As an industry pioneer in electrification research and development, the company is expected to achieve corner overtaking through the application of electrification technology in global competition, further consolidating its leading position in the market.
Investment advice
We are optimistic about the long-term development of the company and maintain our previous profit forecasts: 2024-2026 operating income forecast of 78.698/87.056/98.356 billion yuan; net profit forecast to mother of 5.833/8.138/10.011 billion yuan; and diluted EPS of 0.69/0.96/1.18 yuan based on current total share capital of 8.475 billion shares. The PE ratio corresponding to the current stock price is 27/20/16 times, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
1) Domestic industry demand falls short of expectations; 2) Overseas market expansion falls short of expectations; 3) Accounts receivable recovery risk becomes bad debt preparation; 4) Industry competition intensifies.