Source: Jin10 Data
Author: Xiao Yanyan

According to people familiar with early plans of Donald Trump, as part of a proactive strategy to weaken Tehran's support for violent proxies in the Middle East and its nuclear program, he planned to significantly increase sanctions on Iran and limit its oil sales.

During his first term, Trump had a negative attitude towards Iran, halting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the six-party agreement with Tehran, aimed at restraining Iran's nuclear weapons development. He also implemented the so-called 'maximum pressure' strategy, hoping Iran would abandon its nuclear ambitions, cease support and training of what the US considers terrorist organizations, and improve its human rights record.

However, former officials of Trump said that when he takes office on January 20 next year, his attitude towards Iran is likely to change due to the knowledge of Iranian operatives attempting to assassinate him and former National Security senior aides after leaving office. It is believed that Iran is seeking retaliation for the 2020 US drone strike responsible for the secret quasi-military operation leader Qasem Soleimani.

Mick Mulroy, a senior Pentagon official responsible for Middle East affairs during Trump's first term, said: "People often perceive these things as personal grievances. If he is going to take a hawkish stance towards any particular country, it's Iran."

Individuals familiar with Trump's plans and in contact with his senior advisors stated that the new team will act swiftly, attempting to cut off Iran's oil revenues, including taking action against foreign ports and traders handling Iranian oil. This will echo Trump's strategies from the first term, despite mixed outcomes.

A former White House official said: "I think you will see sanctions reappear, you will see more diplomatic and financial means, they are trying to isolate Iran. I think the perception is that Iran is definitely in a weak position now, and now is the opportunity to exploit this weakness."

Officials familiar with Trump's plans did not specify how he will accurately increase pressure on Iran.

In recent months, Israel has killed Iranian proxies in Gaza and leaders of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and disrupted much of the command structure of these organizations. In retaliation for Iranian missile attacks on Israel, Israel launched strikes inside Iran, severely damaging Tehran's missile production capacity and air defenses.

Iran has vowed to respond to Israel's attack on October 26, but it is currently unclear whether Trump's victory in the election this week will change Tehran's calculations or timing.

Brian Hook, who was responsible for the State Department's Iran policy during Trump's first term, now handles Trump's transition affairs at the State Department. He said on Thursday that Trump "is not interested" in seeking regime change in Iran.

But Hook stated in an interview with CNN that Trump has promised to "isolate Iran diplomatically, weaken them economically, and make it impossible for them to fund all the violent activities carried out by Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and other proxies in Iraq and Syria."

It is widely believed that Hook will receive the top national security position in Trump's second term. During his first term, he advocated for maximum pressure on Iran. Supporters claim that this reduced the available funds for Tehran's security services, but failed to stop Iran's activities through its proxies or its nuclear work.

Last year, during calm negotiations to release Americans detained by the Iranian regime, Iran's oil exports surged, leading Republicans to accuse the Biden administration of not fully enforcing existing oil sanctions, which the White House denied.

Trump reimposed a comprehensive ban on Iran's crude oil exports in 2019. By early 2020, Iran's crude oil exports had dropped to 0.25 million barrels per day, significantly below the level two years ago. However, under Biden's administration, Iran's crude oil exports reached a six-year high in September this year.

Upon returning to the White House, Trump may face the dilemma of rising oil prices and the risk of inflation when trying to curb the sale of oil by opponents like Iran and Venezuela under Biden's administration.

Former U.S. energy official Robert McNally said the Trump administration might impose U.S. sanctions on Chinese ports receiving Iranian oil and impose sanctions on Iraqi officials who support Iran-backed militias. McNally said, 'This would be the 2.0 version of maximum pressure.' He is now the head of the consulting firm, Rapidan Energy Group, based in Washington, D.C.

Helima Croft, Chief Commodity Strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Canada, stated that Trump's senior advisors have expressed strong support for Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and energy installations. Another individual in contact with the Trump team suggested the new president may not oppose Israel's actions.

This contrasts with the Biden administration, as Biden seeks assurance from Israel not to target nuclear or energy infrastructure. The U.S. is concerned that this could raise oil prices and lead to broader regional escalation.

The Iranian President stated later on Wednesday that the outcome of the U.S. election is not important for Iran. He said, 'For us, it doesn't really matter who wins the U.S. election because our country and system rely on our own internal strength.'

However, there are disagreements among Iranian officials about whether the country can withstand greater economic pressure. An Iranian oil official said, 'This situation could spell disaster for Iran's oil industry.' He mentioned that Iran is suffering from a shortage of natural gas used for heating and industrial purposes due to years of underinvestment.

Yet, an Iranian diplomat mentioned that Tehran will deepen trade partnerships to counter U.S. restrictions. He stated that Iran may also respond to pressure by strengthening its nuclear program or threatening oil facilities in the Middle East.

Despite mutual hostility, some people who have worked for Trump in the past do not rule out the possibility of eventually reaching a US-Iran diplomatic agreement in his second term. Mulroy said Trump likes to make deals, but the condition is "it's his deal".

Editor/Jeffy