Guolian Securities Research Institute reported that li auto inc (02015) released the delivery data for October 2024. In October 2024, li auto inc delivered 51,443 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%. As of October 31, 2024, li auto inc delivered a total of 0.393 million vehicles in 2024. Product strength is gradually improving, with stable growth in orders for the L series and MEGA, maintaining high growth in delivery data for October. Product strength translates into sales, winning the sales champion of new energy autos in China with sales exceeding 0.2 million yuan for seven consecutive months, with expectations to deliver 0.16-0.17 million vehicles in the fourth quarter.

The bank pointed out that li auto inc's end-to-end + VLM system currently has a city NOA mileage penetration rate of over 50% among test users. In the report "How to Evaluate the End-to-End Ability of Auto Companies," the bank believes that li auto inc has computational power and data scale advantages, with future functionalities expected to maintain a leading position. The lower limit of intelligent driving functions has significantly improved, with li auto inc deploying the new generation intelligent driving technology architecture end-to-end + VLM dual system to all users of the ADMax platform. Li auto inc is expected to maintain high R&D investment in the future, and the quality intelligentization is expected to improve customer satisfaction.

The company is expected to have revenues of 147.3/205.4/280 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%/39.4%/36.3%, net income attributable to the parent company of 8.53/14.24/23.72 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -27.1%/67.0%/66.6%, and EPS of 4.02/6.71/11.18 yuan per share, with a 3-year CAGR of 40.6%. The company's product strength is improving, with intelligent electrification accelerating, sales realization, and profit realization. Maintaining a "buy" rating.