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特朗普胜选加剧贬值风险!日本7月两度干预汇市 更多举措正在酝酿?

Trump's election victory exacerbates depreciation risks! Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market twice in July. Are more measures brewing?

Zhitong Finance ·  Nov 8 10:18

Japan has stated that it has entered the forex market twice in the last quarter. Given the recent depreciation of the yen, there is growing speculation that Japan may be considering more measures.

According to the reports from the Futu Securities News APP, Japan has stated that it has entered the forex market twice in the last quarter. Given the recent depreciation of the yen, there is growing speculation that Japan may be considering more measures.

According to the quarterly daily detailed data released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance until September, Japan intervened on July 11 and 12, spending 3.17 trillion yen (20.7 billion dollars) and 2.37 trillion yen to support the yen. Before the Japanese government took action in July, the USD/JPY rate once broke through 160 to a 38-year high, partly due to speculators betting on the huge spread in borrowing costs between Japan and the USA.

The report on Friday also confirmed that Japan did not conduct additional smoothing operations (small-scale and frequent forex market intervention measures adopted by central banks or monetary authorities to reduce exchange rate volatility) after these two days. Earlier analysis from relevant institutions suggested that the Japanese government may sell US government bonds to fund most of the actions.

Since then, Japanese authorities have refrained from participating in the market as the yen has risen against the US dollar amid narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and other countries. On July 31, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, while the Federal Reserve and other major central banks turned to rate cuts to support the economy.

However, after Trump's victory in the US presidential election on Tuesday, the USD appreciated significantly against a range of currencies worldwide, putting the yen at risk of further depreciation. On Friday, the USD/JPY exchange rate hovered around 153, close to its lowest level since July.

Wall Street is betting that Trump's presidency may lead to policies that strengthen the USD, as tariffs on US trading partners and domestic tax cuts could raise inflation and interest rates. But there is still considerable uncertainty surrounding Trump's various policies and their potential impact on exchange rate trends.

Some economists believe that under the Trump administration starting in January next year, Japan may find it easier to persuade the USA that intervention in the exchange rates is necessary, as the elected president has previously expressed support for a weaker USD.

Atsushi Takeuchi, Chief Researcher at the Ricoh Institute of Sustainability and Business, stated: "If Japan takes measures to prevent the yen from weakening, Trump's position might be 'intervening very well.' From his perspective, the United States doesn't need to spend any money - the Japanese are doing it for him."

Others, however, believe that Japan may actually be caught in a dilemma. Tohru Sasaki, Chief Strategist at Fukuoka Financial Group Inc., suggested that the United States might demand conditions from Japan before agreeing to sell dollars, potentially exacerbating inflation in the United States.

Sasaki mentioned: "Trump might say, 'If you want to intervene, buy some fighter jets.' The Japanese government might maintain a weak position for a period of time, therefore they may not be able to respond to this situation. Hence, the obstacles to intervention could be higher."

Meanwhile, Atsushi Mimura, Chief Currency Official of Japan, intensified verbal warnings on Thursday, stating that the government will monitor the market with extreme urgency and take action against excessive volatility. These comments were made after the yen fell to 155 against the dollar.

A survey conducted among economists before the October Bank of Japan meeting showed that if the yen reaches 160 against the dollar, it could prompt the government to further intervene in the currency.

In this case, coordination with major international partners including the United States may be crucial. Major economies generally believe that currency value should be determined by market forces, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen repeatedly stating that currency intervention should be a rarely used tool, and officials should give reasonable advance warnings. While she did not criticize Japan's recent intervention, her comments underscore the international community's overall stance against frequent or aggressive interventions in the foreign exchange market.

At recent international conferences, Japan has emphasized the G20's position that excessive and disorderly fluctuations in exchange rates could have destabilizing effects on the global economy and financial stability. This may be to demonstrate that early and potential future actions to address such risks are reasonable.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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