Cailian Press reported on November 8 that the market opened low and closed high yesterday, with the Chinext Price Index leading the gains. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.51 trillion for the whole day, a decrease of 57.8 billion from the previous trading day. Overall, more stocks rose than fell, with over 4,500 stocks in the entire market rising, and nearly 200 stocks hitting the daily limit. In terms of sectors, the sectors of baijiu(chinese liquor), insurance, food, and securities performed well, while sectors like precious metals, military industry, siasun robot&automation, and flying autos were among the top decliners. As of the close of yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.57%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.44%, and the Chinext Price Index rose by 3.75%.

At today's brokerage morning meeting, citic sec believes that the domestic market and self-controllable direction are clear development directions for China's semiconductor industry; gtja pointed out that the improvement in domestic demand is expected to continue to heat up, highlighting the elasticity of baijiu; htsc stated that bank performance is expected to stabilize, seizing structural opportunities.

Citic Securities: The domestic demand market and independent controllable direction are the clear development directions for the Chinese semiconductor industry.

Citic Securities expects that after Trump takes office, a new round of decoupling and disconnection will be initiated, imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, restricting the sale of key technology products to China, and preparing for a new round of trade and technology wars. In this scenario, the domestic demand market and independent controllable direction are the clear development directions for the Chinese semiconductor industry.

Citic Securities believes that the actual marginal impact of U.S. sanctions in the advanced technology field is gradually diminishing, which will not change the long-term direction of high-end development in the Chinese semiconductor industry, and will accelerate the promotion of China's industrial self-reliance. In the long term, mainland China is expected to foster an independent and controllable industry chain system that is separate from the United States. Supply chain companies from Japan, South Korea, Europe, and Taiwan, China may participate in both the Chinese and American supply chain systems.

Looking at a six-month timeframe, the key focus is on the landing of domestic advanced storage and logic manufacturers' expansion demand, breakthroughs in domestic advanced packaging technology, and the confidence boost from integrated circuit and technology creation policies on the sector. Looking at a timeframe of over a year, attention should be placed on the localization of bottleneck areas like advanced manufacturing, advanced packaging, semiconductor equipment, and high-end chips, and also on the mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor sector.

GTJA: Expectations for domestic demand improvement continue to heat up, highlighting the resilience of baijiu.

GTJA stated that recently, the domestic fiscal policy has been positive, accompanied by the outcome of major overseas events. The market's expectation for the recovery of domestic consumption demand and the stabilization of the real estate industry chain continues to heat up. The logic of improving consumer demand is evident, and as a high-end consumption and typical pro-cyclical industry, baijiu possesses significant demand recovery elasticity.

Although in the third quarter of 2024, the baijiu industry is still in a performance adjustment phase due to the inventory cycle impact, after the sector's positions fell, the micro trading structure further optimized. Currently, the Shenwan baijiu index valuation is around the historical 20th percentile. It is expected that the subsequent strong recovery expectations are likely to support the sector valuation. The inflection point of stock prices may lead the fundamental inflection point (similar to 2014, where in the first quarter of 2014, the sector's stock prices bottomed out, and in the fourth quarter of 2014, the earnings growth rate turned positive).

HTSC: Banks' performance is expected to stabilize, seize structural opportunities.

HTSC stated that it is expected the performance of listed banks in 2025 is likely to stabilize, but the main disturbance variables may be net interest margins and credit costs. The policy of stable growth continues to support the prudent credit extension by banks. The central bank has repeatedly expressed its intent to protect the profit space of banks, and the gradual improvement in cost on the liability side is becoming apparent, with the narrowing of the decline in net interest margins expected. With the warming of the capital markets, intermediate income is expected to rebound from a low base. With the return of risk preference for funds, the logic for selecting bank stocks shifts from dividend hedging to high-quality + undervalued resilient individual stocks, and prudent high-dividend stocks still hold allocation value.