海外下游车企销量不佳导致公司短期盈利承压由于受到全球经济波动加剧，欧元区经济增长放缓等影响，2024 年前三季度海外部分车企销量表现不佳，其中，奥迪全球销量116 万辆，同比-11%；宝马集团全球销量163 万辆，同比-5.7%，奔驰全球销量157 万辆，同比-3.8%，公司海外业务占比较高，2024 年H1 公司海外业务占比达到57.3%，且奥迪、奔驰、宝马等豪华品牌均为公司长期客户，下游车企客户销量短期波动对公司业绩造成影响。作为应对，公司努力提升海外工厂的运营效率，并优化生产线，进一步提高产线产能的利用率。Key investment points
Company announcement: In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.402 billion yuan, +6.08% year on year; realized net profit to mother of 0.125 billion yuan, -10.90% year over year; realized deducted non-net profit of 0.12 billion yuan, or -22.99% year on year.
Gross margin was 23.52%, down 1.26% year on year; net margin was 4.36%, down 1.89% year on year; 2024 Q3 revenue, net profit attributable to mother, and net profit without return to mother were 1.448, 0.046, and 0.044 billion yuan, respectively, -8.83%, -43.25%, -41.56% year over year, -1.45%, +30.99%, and +26.97%.
Poor sales volume of overseas downstream car companies has put pressure on the company's short-term profits. Due to the effects of increased global economic fluctuations and the slowdown in economic growth in the Eurozone, etc., some overseas car companies had poor sales performance in the first three quarters of 2024. Among them, Audi sold 1.16 million vehicles globally, -11%; BMW Group sold 1.63 million vehicles globally, -5.7% year on year; Mercedes-Benz sold 1.57 million vehicles globally, with a relatively high share of the company's overseas business in 2024. 57.3%, and luxury brands such as Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW are all long-term customers of the company. Short-term fluctuations in customer sales volume from downstream car companies have had an impact on the company's performance. In response, the company strives to improve the operational efficiency of overseas factories, optimize production lines, and further improve the utilization rate of production line capacity.
High-end cockpit products and new energy products continue to expand under its own brands. With the rise of domestic luxury brands and new energy vehicles, the company continues to strengthen customer investment in its own brands. The company is a world-class supplier for domestic automakers such as BYD, Geely, NIO, Ideal, and Xiaopeng. Currently, domestic mid-range and high-end new energy models are fiercely competitive. The demand for electric air vents, hidden air vents, and high-end interior coverings is increasing year by year, and it is expected that the company's domestic demand for high-end cockpit products will continue to increase. In terms of new energy products, the company's in-vehicle charging and distribution products business scope continues to expand, completing the expansion from vehicle-side customers to eVTOL customers.
Joyson Electronics increased its shareholding in Xiangshan, and the shareholding structure became more clear
From August 27, 2024 to October 23, 2024, Joyson Electronics increased its holdings of listed companies by a total of 8,317,200 shares through centralized bidding and bulk transactions on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, accounting for 6.30% of the total share capital of listed companies. After the completion of this increase plan, Joyson Electronics held 23.31% of the listed company's total share capital, making it the company's single largest shareholder.
Profit forecasting and valuation
The company's 2024-2026 revenue is expected to be 6.482, 7.755, 8.917 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of 0.164, 0.203, and 0.238 billion yuan, corresponding to current PE26.89, 21.78, and 18.55 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
There is a risk that traditional OEM customer sales will continue to decline, and that the development of the new energy business will fall short of expectations.
