Zhitong Finance and Economics APP learned that on November 7, the General Administration of Customs of China released import and export data showing that in October, the import volume of csi commodity equity index mostly increased, with soybean, henry hub natural gas, coal, and thermal coal leading the gains. Among them, the import volume of iron ore and coal remained high, with the coal import volume staying above 45 million tons for the fourth consecutive month. Citic Securities believes that in the middle and late stages of the fourth quarter, under seasonal factors and policy expectations, coal prices are expected to remain stable, coupled with policy factors that may further drive dividend stock styles and the sector may enter a new round of rebound in the short term. Relevant symbols: southgobi (01878), yancoal aus (03668), china coal energy (01898), and china shenhua energy (01088).

In 2023, due to the price advantage of imported coal compared to domestic coal, coupled with the zero-tariff import policy, China's annual coal import volume reached approximately 0.474 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 61.8%, hitting a historical high. Previously, the highest historical record of domestic coal imports was set in 2013 at 0.327 billion tons.

Since the beginning of this year, China's coal imports have continued to grow rapidly. On November 7, the General Administration of Customs of China announced that in October, the import volume of csi commodity equity index mostly increased, with soybean, henry hub natural gas, coal, and thermal coal leading the gains. Among them, the import volume of iron ore and coal remained high, with the coal import volume staying above 45 million tons for the fourth consecutive month.

Domestically, in the fourth quarter, with the arrival of the peak winter coal season, the enthusiasm for production in the main coal-producing regions of China is high, and coal imports continue to remain high. According to Zhang Hong, spokesperson for the China Coal Industry Association, the northeastern region has entered the heating season, increasing the demand for coal, and the national coal mine production capacity continues to be released. Coal production is at a high level, with an increase in imported coal, laying a solid foundation for ensuring coal supply this winter and next spring.

Internationally, influenced by geopolitical factors and the growing demand from major coal-consuming countries such as India and Southeast Asia, global coal consumption will remain high. According to the International Energy Agency's forecast, global coal production in 2024 will be 8.939 billion tons, a slight decrease of 0.03 billion tons compared to the previous year, leading to a minor decrease in supply.

GTJA stated that in 2024, under the increasing pressure of declining demand, coal prices have exhibited unexpected price resilience, reflecting the stability of supply and demand. Looking ahead to 2025, the overall fluctuation range of thermal coal prices may further narrow, maintaining an investment strategy focused on dividends; meanwhile, in the coking coal sector, the industry's lowest point in 2024 has been confirmed, and downstream steel demand is expected to recover in 2025 under policy incentives, making coking coal the most resilient variety in the coal-coking-steel industry chain.

Shanxi Securities research report pointed out that looking ahead, the stable economic policies in the fourth quarter combined with heating demand, it is expected that there is still growth space for industrial electricity and non-electric coal demand. The thermal coal price fluctuated slightly in the third quarter of this year, with a quarterly long-term contract price of coking coal decreasing in September. Against the backdrop of weak and stable coal prices, the performance of coal companies has shown differentiation, with some heavyweight companies' performance exceeding expectations.

CITIC Securities believes that in the middle and late stages of the fourth quarter, under seasonal factors and policy expectations, it is expected that coal prices will mainly stabilize, and additional policy factors may further drive the dividend style, resulting in a new round of rebound in the sector in the short term.

Related concept stocks:

SouthGobi (01878): SouthGobi is a coal supplier listed in Toronto and Hong Kong, mainly engaged in coal production, logistics, and sales, with its main operation located at the Mongolian Ovoot Tolgoi coal mine 46 kilometers from the border between China and Mongolia.

Yancoal Aus (03668): Yancoal Aus recently announced that as of the end of September, in the third quarter, the raw coal production was 17.5 million tons on a 100% basis, a 9% increase year-on-year; the equity raw coal production was 13.2 million tons, a 9% increase year-on-year. The sale of saleable coal was 13.2 million tons, a 9% increase year-on-year; the equity saleable coal production was 10.2 million tons, a 10% increase year-on-year. During the period, the equity coal sales volume was 10.4 million tons, up 20% year-on-year. The average coal sales price was 170 Australian dollars per ton, a 14% decrease year-on-year.

China Coal Energy (01898): China Coal Energy announced its third-quarter performance for 2024, with revenue of approximately 47.428 billion yuan, a 1.2% year-on-year increase; net income attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately 4.826 billion yuan, a 0.6% decrease year-on-year, with a slight increase of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter; non-GAAP net profit was 4.77 billion yuan, a 1% decrease year-on-year, with a slight increase of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter.

China Shenhua Energy (01088): China Shenhua recently held a performance exchange meeting for the third quarter of 2024. The company is intensifying its investment in new energy based on its own characteristics and industrial layout. Currently, the company's planned new energy investment has installed and operating capacity exceeding 4.06 million kilowatts, with the latest commissioned capacity at 0.76 million kilowatts. It is expected that by the end of this year, the scale of new energy installed capacity may exceed 1 million kilowatts. Although the proportion of total assets and revenue is relatively low, this represents a positive breakthrough for the company in green transformation and the joint operation of traditional energy and new energy.