营收层面：公司问界系列持续畅销带动营收快速增长。24Q3实现营收415.82 亿元，2024 年前三季度实现营收1066.27亿元，同比+539.2%；24Q3 实现归母净利润24.13 亿元，2024 年前三季度实现归母净利润40.4 亿元，同比+276.0%；24Q3 实现扣非净利润23.3 亿元，2024 年前三季度实现扣非净利润37.6 亿元，同比+224.8%；业绩位于预告上限。Cyrus announced that 24Q3 achieved revenue of 41.582 billion yuan, +636.3%, or +8.1% month-on-month; net profit to mother of 2.413 billion yuan, +354.1% year-on-year, +71.8% month-on-month; deducted non-net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, +305.8% year-on-month, +75.8% month-on-month; gross profit margin of 25.5%, strong profitability.
Key investment points
The performance is at the upper limit of the forecast, and the cost improvement is obvious
Revenue level: Continued sales of the Company Questionnaire series led to rapid revenue growth. 24Q3 achieved revenue of 41.582 billion yuan, and achieved revenue of 106.627 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, or +539.2%; 24Q3 achieved net profit of 2.413 billion yuan, net profit to mother in the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.04 billion yuan, or +276.0% year-on-year; 24Q3 achieved deduction of 2.33 billion yuan in non-net profit, and 3.76 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024. +224.8% YoY; performance is at the upper limit of the forecast.
Gross profit margin: 24Q3 gross profit margin 25.5%, +18.0pct year over year, -1.9pct month-on-month. The month-on-month decline in gross margin was mainly affected by changes in accounting policies. Guaranteed quality assurance expenses are included in operating costs, and the company's profitability is strong.
Expense rate for the period: The company's expense ratio for the Q3 period was 16.9%, -13.8pct year-on-year, and -5.2pct month-on-month. It was mainly affected by changes in accounting policies, and assurance quality assurance expenses (sales expenses) were included in operating costs; among them, the sales/management/ financial/ R&D expense ratios were 11.1%/2.5%/-0.4%/3.7%, respectively, -5.5/-3.4/-3.7pct, year-on-month, respectively.
The M9 will surpass 0.16 million vehicles and continue to break through in the high-end passenger car market
A total of 0.1083 million vehicles were delivered in the 24Q3 series, +561.1% year over year and +13.6% month over month. As of October 26, the M9 had a cumulative total of 0.16 million vehicles over 10 months of launch, ranking first in the sales volume of models over 0.5 million, and continued to break through in the high-end passenger car market.
Profit forecasting
The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 140.3, 186, and 203.1 billion yuan, respectively, and EPS is 3.8, 4.6, and 5.1 yuan respectively. The current stock price is 35, 30, and 27 times PE, respectively. Considering that the company's cooperative with Huawei is gradually stabilizing its position as a new high-end force in China, it has great potential for future growth, and maintains a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
(1) The promotion of new models fell short of expectations; (2) automobile consumer demand fell short of expectations; (3) the progress of cooperation with Huawei fell short of expectations.
