According to CCTV news, senior advisors revealed that Trump may allow Fed Chairman Powell to continue serving until the end of May 2026. The Fed cut interest rates as scheduled by 25 basis points, and the decision statement deleted the expression "gaining confidence in tackling inflation", with analysts suggesting an open attitude towards pausing rate cuts. Powell's press conference also mentioned that it may be appropriate to slow down rate cuts in the future.

US economic data had a minor impact on the market, with the number of initial jobless claims in the US increasing slightly to 0.221 million last week, lower than the expected 0.222 million. Traders reduced expectations of rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December rising from 29.5% to 72.9%, while the possibility of a 50 basis point cut dropped to 0.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued their post-election rally to reach new highs, while the Dow Jones, after hitting an intraday high, reversed along with small-cap stocks as investors unwound the "Trump trade". The US dollar and Treasury yields retreated from four-month highs, and gold, silver, oil, and copper all rose. Germany's ruling coalition collapsed overnight, potentially leading to a government shutdown, with the German stock market rising 1.7%. The Bank of England's "hawkish" rate cut boosted the British pound but caused a decline in British large-cap stocks.

Internationally, the Bank of England cut rates as expected by 25 basis points to 4.75%, with the Bank of England Governor warning that the 40 billion pound fiscal budget could increase inflation risks, and there would be no rapid or large rate cuts. UK bond prices rose across the board, as the market reduced bets on further rate cuts by the Bank of England. The current probability of another 25 basis point cut in December is 15%, compared to around 25% on Wednesday.

The Swedish central bank's 50 basis point rate cut, the first in a decade, met expectations and hinted at a possible increase in easing to support the economy in the future. The Norwegian central bank kept rates near a sixteen-year high, indicating no rush to ease policy in the short term, with gradual rate cuts expected from the first quarter of next year. The Norwegian krone rose 2% against the US dollar, marking the largest intraday gain since December 2023.

ECB board member Yannis Stournaras warned that if the new US President Trump implements the tariffs, fiscal, and immigration policies he proposed during his campaign, it may have a negative impact on the EU economy. The ECB will not change its policy until it sees specific policy statements from the new US government, and will maintain the status quo at least until the next meeting in December.

On Thursday, November 7th, the day after the "Fed rate cut day" and the day after "Trump's election victory". $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Hitting a historic new high during the session. Chip stocks, AI concept stocks, and technology stocks are all rising. The China concept index once surged more than 3.7%, significantly outperforming the large cap stocks in the USA. $XPeng (XPEV.US)$ Closing up by 15.61%. However, investors took profit, $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ closing down nearly 23%, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Over the past three days, there has been a cumulative increase of 22.27%, while the Philadelphia Bank Index fell back by 2.68%.

• The three major U.S. stock indexes experienced mixed movements. The S&P 500 index closed up 44.06 points, or 0.74%, at 5973.10 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, closely related to the economic cycle, closed down 0.59 points, or 0.00%, at 43729.34 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed up 285.99 points, or 1.51%, at 19269.46 points. The Nasdaq 100 Index closed up 1.54%. The Nasdaq Composite Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology sector constituents, closed up 2.19%. The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, closed down 0.43%. The VIX fear index fell by 6.52%, closing at 15.21, approaching the September 26 low of 14.90 and the August 30 closing level of 15.00.

• U.S. stock industry ETFs closed with mixed gains and losses. The semiconductor ETF rose nearly 2%, global tech ETF, tech industry ETF, and internet stock index ETF all rose by almost 2%. Consumer discretionary ETF, biotechnology index ETF, and medical industry ETF had gains around 1%. While regional bank ETFs and banking industry ETFs both fell over 3%, financial industry ETF and global aviation industry ETF each fell around 1.5%.

• Most sectors of the S&P 500 index rose. The financial sector fell by 1.62%, industrial sector by 0.6%, energy sector by 0.36%, utility sector rose by 0.15%, consumer staples sector rose by 0.37%, materials sector rose by 0.5%, healthcare sector rose by 0.64%, real estate sector rose by 1.19%, consumer discretionary sector rose by 1.37%, information technology/tech sector rose by 1.83%, telecom sector rose by 1.92%.

• On investment research strategy: Evercore ISI strategist Emanuel believes that the upward trend of the U.S. stock market has not ended yet, Trump's policies are expected to drive the S&P 500 index up by another 11% by mid-next year, with a target price set at 6600 points. Despite high valuations in the U.S. stock market, there is historical evidence that high valuations can last longer with greater increases.

• "The Big Tech Seven Sisters" all rose. Meta closed up 3.44%, Tesla rose 2.9%, continuing the trend from the U.S. election day (5th) with a 3.54% increase, and the "Trump victory day" (6th) surged by 14.75%. Google A rose by 2.4%, Nvidia rose by 2.25%, Apple rose by 2.14%, Amazon rose by 1.43%, and Microsoft rose by 1.25%.

• Most chip stocks rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.27%. The industry ETF SOXX rose 2.08%. Nvidia's double long ETF rose 4.52%. AMD rose 3.25%, Broadcom rose 2.37%. Arm Holdings rose 4.13%, despite the company's actual performance guidance falling short of Wall Street's high expectations. Micron Technology rose 1.41%, Intel rose 4.71%. ASML Holding ADR rose 2.39%. Taiwan Semiconductor ADR rose 4.12%, KLA Corp rose 2.46%, while Qualcomm opened over 5% higher and closed down 0.05% after a profit increase of over 30% in the previous quarter, surpassing expectations for the current quarter's guidance. ON Semiconductor fell 0.3%, Wolfspeed fell 39.24%, with poor revenue guidance for the third and next quarters.

• AI concept stocks mostly rose. Super Micro Computer rose by 12.25%, SoundHound AI, a company Nvidia holds stock in, rose by 22.14%, BigBear.ai rose by 9.43%, Palantir rose by 0.63%, CrowdStrike rose by 3.37%, Snowflake rose by 1.75%, Oracle rose by 2.83%, BullFrog AI rose by 4.78%, Serve Robotics rose by 7.33%, C3.ai fell by 0.65%, Dell Technologies fell by 0.35%.

• Chinese concept stocks significantly outperformed the U.S. market. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index rose by 3.5%. In ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose by 6.05%. The China Concept Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose by 5.21%. The FTSE China 3X Bull ETF (YINN) rose by 16.19%. The FTSE A50 futures contract continued to rise in the night market by 1.07%, reaching 14,310.000 points.

• Among popular China concept stocks, Fangdd Network rose 22.12%, Xpeng rose 15.61%. Zeekr rose 1.72%, Li Auto Inc. rose 3.64%, Nio Inc. rose 6.2%. Daqo New Energy rose 6.24%, Trip.com rose 2.04%, Alibaba rose 3.53%, Baidu rose 2.87%, Bilibili rose 8.89%, Tiger Brokers rose 9.52%, Netease rose 1.45%, JD.com rose 6.62%, New Oriental rose 2.06%, PDD Holdings rose 4.4%.

• "Trump Victory" had a positive effect on the financial industry. The Philadelphia Banking Index fell by 2.68%, the Dow Jones KBW Regional Bank Index fell by 3.71%, major Wall Street banks Wells Fargo & Co. fell by 3.66%, JPMorgan fell by 4.32%, Morgan Stanley fell by 2.32%, Goldman Sachs fell by 2.32%. JPMorgan executive Al Moffitt stated that it is currently difficult to determine what financial industry regulatory changes President Trump's election win could bring about.

• Other key individual stocks: (1) Moderna initially rose over 9.4% then fell 2.95%, with third-quarter revenue exceeding expectations and an unexpected profit, driven by strong sales of the COVID-19 vaccine. (2) US electric auto manufacturer Lucid Group briefly rose over 6% after hours, with third-quarter losses better than expected. (3) Airbnb is bullish on the holiday outlook (Thanksgiving + Christmas), citing 'strong demand,' with the stock price briefly rising over 13% after hours.

Due to the Bank of England warning that the budget announcement may boost inflation, while European stocks generally rose, the UK FTSE 100 Index fell 0.32%. German Chancellor fired Finance Minister Lindner, ending the three-party coalition government, with the German stock market rising 1.7%.

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose by 0.62%. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index rose by 1.07%. The FTSE Developed Europe Top 300 Index rose by 0.59%. Most sectors saw gains, with mining stocks leading the way with a 3.9% increase, while medical and media stocks both fell by 0.4%.

• The Germany DAX 30 Index rose by 1.70%. The France CAC 40 Index rose by 0.76%. The Netherlands AEX Index rose by 0.36%. The Italy FTSE MIB Index rose by 0.12%. The UK FTSE 100 Index fell by 0.32%. The Spain IBEX 35 Index rose by 0.65%.

The Fed rate cut led to a drop of more than 10 basis points in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on the 'Fed rate cut day.' Investors are concerned about the impact of the collapse of the German ruling coalition, with the 2-year and 10-year German bond yields rising by about 4 basis points. On the 'Bank of England rate cut day,' the Bank of England Governor stated that the volatility in the UK bond market caused by the budget may have ended, with the 2-year and 10-year UK bond yields dropping by more than 6 basis points each.

• U.S. Treasuries: At the close, the yield on the 10-year U.S. benchmark Treasury note fell by 10.57 basis points, to 4.3257%, trading in a range of 4.4512% - 4.3082% intraday. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note fell by 6.23 basis points, to 4.1994%, trading in a range of 4.2783% - 4.1848% intraday.

• "New Bond King," Doubleline Capital founder Jeffrey Gundlach expects the Fed to cut rates by another 25 basis points in December.

• Eurozone Bonds: At the close, the 10-year German bond yield rose by 4.3 basis points, to 2.448%. The 2-year German bond yield increased by 3.8 basis points. The 10-year UK bond yield fell by 6.4 basis points, to 4.498%, hitting a daily high of 4.589% at 20:00 Beijing time following the expected rate cut announcement of 25 basis points, then fluctuating lower to hit a daily low of 4.473% at 23:55. The 2-year UK bond yield fell by 6.2 basis points. The 10-year French bond yield rose by 3.1 basis points, while the 10-year Italian bond yield rose by 0.3 basis points.

• After German Finance Minister Scholz was dismissed, the market is concerned that Germany may increase debt issuance. A key market indicator shows that the yield on German 10-year government bonds has historically exceeded the corresponding interbank swap rate for the first time, indicating increased market concerns about bond supply. At the same time, the spread between 30-year and 2-year government bonds has expanded, approaching its highest level in over two years, further reflecting the intensification of fiscal concerns.

The combination of the Fed's rate cut and the 'Trump trade profit taking' caused the US Dollar Index to drop nearly 0.5%, after touching a four-month high on Wednesday. The offshore Chinese Yuan rebounded by over 600 points, breaking through 7.15 yuan.

• USD: The USD Index DXY fell 0.7% to 104.36 in late trading, after soaring to its highest level since July 3 on Wednesday, marking the biggest single-day gain since September 2022 with a 1.5% increase. The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.77%.

• Non-US Currencies: The Euro rose 0.3% against the US Dollar to 1.0764, after hitting a low of 1.06828 on Wednesday for the first time since July 27. The Australian Dollar rose by 1.67% to 0.6679 US Dollars. The New Zealand Dollar rose by 1.45% to 0.6025 US Dollars. The Colombian Peso rose by 2% against the US Dollar, with emerging market currencies generally rebounding.

• Japanese Yen: The Japanese Yen rallied over 1% against the US Dollar in late trading, breaking through the 153 level.

• Offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH): The offshore Chinese Yuan rose by 621 points against the US Dollar in late trading, reaching 7.1415 yuan. This means that half of the ground lost on the 'Trump victory day' was later recovered, with overall intraday trading in the 7.2132-7.1415 yuan range. By 09:18 Beijing time, it had approached the bottom of August 2 at 7.2521 yuan. Traders are betting on a short-term appreciation of the Chinese Yuan.

• Cryptocurrency: The largest leader in market cap, Bitcoin, first fell and then rose, closing at over 0.076 million US dollars. Futures fell by 0.5% to 0.0765 million US dollars, while the second largest Ethereum futures rose over 7% to reach 2900 US dollars.

Traders are weighing the impact of Trump's return to the White House on crude oil production and geopolitical risks, with a weak dollar supporting international oil prices to rise by over 0.9%.

• US Oil: WTI December crude oil futures closed up $0.67, an increase of over 0.93%, at $72.36 per barrel. US oil saw a V-shaped reversal during trading hours, with European stocks falling by over 1.4% to below $70.70, then continued to rise, with US stocks rising by nearly 1.7% to near $72.90 during regular trading hours.

• Brent Oil: Brent January crude oil futures closed up $0.71, an increase of about 0.95%, at $75.63 per barrel. Brent oil saw a V-shaped reversal during trading hours, with European stocks falling by over 1.2% to below $74, then continued to rise, with US stocks rising by over 1.5% to near $76.10 during regular trading hours.

• On the news front, Haitong Securities' research report pointed out that Trump's election may bring more bearish factors to crude oil. The main bearish influences are as follows: 1. Reduced geopolitical risks, such as easing Russia-Ukraine tensions, may decrease the oil risk premium; 2. Increased oil supply may be needed to control inflation; 3. Trade frictions may increase, affecting global oil demand; 4. Pressure may be placed on oil-producing countries to increase production.

• Natural Gas: US December natural gas futures closed down by over 1.96%, at $2.6930 per million British thermal units.

The weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields supported the rise in precious metals. Spot gold recouped more than half of the losses on 'Trump's victory day', rising over 1.9% at one point to surpass $2710.

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures rose 1.45% to $2715.00 per ounce at the close, reaching a historical high of $2801.80 on October 30. Spot gold fell nearly 0.6% to just under $2640 during the Asian session, then rose steadily. After the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut and Fed Chair Powell's press conference started, it briefly fell below $2690, then quickly rallied, rising over 1.9% to break above $2710 after the press conference, closing up 1.77% at $2706.64 per ounce.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures rose 2.73% to $32.115 per ounce at the close. Spot silver fell nearly 1% to below $30.90 during the Asian session, then continued to rise. Powell's press conference saw a near 3.1% increase to break above $32.10, closing up 2.73% at $32.0277 per ounce.

• London industrial metals rebounded overall: LME copper closed up 3.44% at $9664 per tonne. COMEX copper futures rose 4.50% to $4.4370 per pound. LME aluminum rose 3.02%. LME zinc rose $79 to $3052 per tonne. LME lead fell by $10 to $2038 per tonne. LME nickel rose $460 to $16587 per tonne. LME tin rose $470 to $31817 per tonne. LME cobalt remained steady at $24300 per tonne.

• Huatai Securities' research report predicts that copper prices may show a trend of highs followed by lows by 2025. In the first half of the year, due to the impact of China's loose policies, expected US rate cuts, and fiscal expansion, liquidity and economic expectations may improve, driving copper prices higher. However, with a potential downturn in the US economy, copper prices may come under pressure in the second half of the year. At the same time, there is a high possibility of copper oversupply in 2025-2026, and the improvement or deterioration of the market situation will depend on whether copper ore production is disrupted.

• Alumina night trading closed up 2.47%, hitting a record high at Chinese Yuan 5300. Shanghai nickel rose over 3%, while international copper, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai aluminum all rose over 2%.

Editor/rice