7月至9月的三季度期间，生产率的年化增长为2.2%，与二季度增幅类似。生产率衡量的是非农商业员工每小时的产出。In the third quarter, the initial value of non-farm unit labor costs in the usa increased by an annualized rate of 1.9%, far exceeding the expected 1%. The value for the previous quarter was significantly revised upward. The latest non-farm unit labor costs, combined with a series of other strong economic data in the recent period, may pose a risk to inflation in the United States, leading the Federal Reserve to be more cautious in its interest rate cuts in the coming months.
Data released by the USA Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that labor costs in the USA unexpectedly surged in the third quarter, far exceeding earlier expectations, which could exacerbate inflationary pressures.
The initial value of nonfarm business sector labor costs in the USA in the third quarter increased by an annualized 1.9%, much higher than the expected 1%. The figures for the previous quarter were significantly revised upward, with the nonfarm business sector labor costs in the second quarter being revised from 0.4% to 2.4%. Unit labor costs refer to the expenses that enterprises pay to employees to produce one unit of output.
During the third quarter from July to September, productivity grew at an annualized rate of 2.2%, similar to the growth rate seen in the second quarter. Productivity measures the output per hour of nonfarm business employees.
From a year-over-year perspective, productivity in the third quarter increased by 2%, the slowest pace in over a year. At the same time, unit labor costs rose by 3.4% year-over-year, reaching the highest level since the end of 2022.
In the third quarter, hourly wage growth accelerated to 3% after price adjustments, marking the seventh consecutive quarter where wage growth has outpaced inflation.
The USA Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that this release includes historical data revisions for the past five years, providing insights into the statistical results. The revised data shows that Americans' wage growth has significantly strengthened in recent quarters, explaining why the country's consumers are able to drive the economy forward at a steady pace.
The latest data from the USA Bureau of Labor Statistics is contrasted with other labor market-related data. Nonfarm and other data indicate that income growth is slowing down. For example, the average hourly wage for nonfarm employees in the USA increased by 4% year-on-year in October, meeting expectations, with the previous value revised downward from 4% to 3.9%.
In the third quarter of the USA, non-farm unit labor costs, combined with a series of strong recent economic data, may pose a risk to the country's inflation, making the Fed more cautious in its interest rate cuts in the coming months.
Bloomberg analyst pointed out that the decline in productivity and the upward revision of unit labor costs in the third quarter may prompt the Federal Reserve to take a more gradual approach on the rate cut path, especially with the upward revision of labor costs, which will make Fed officials more cautious. In addition, with the comeback of Trump, whose policies are believed by many economists to exacerbate inflation, it may also influence the Fed's policy direction.
Later on Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced its November interest rate decision. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, stating that the risks facing the employment and inflation targets are "roughly balanced," but the decision statement removed the reference to "gaining confidence in addressing the inflation issue." Some Fed watchers speculate that the removal of the reference to gaining confidence in addressing the inflation issue may imply that policymakers are open to holding off on further rate cuts in December.
Editor/rice
