Caixin News Agency reports on November 7 (Editor: Niu Zhanlin) that after Trump's miraculous comeback, the market is assessing the winners and losers of the US election results. Goldman Sachs' latest forecast indicates that Trump's proposed protectionist policies, including high tariffs, will undermine Europe's economic position, especially for economies like Germany.

After Trump's re-election, Goldman Sachs revised down the economic growth forecast for the European region, expecting trade relations between the US and Europe to become more tense, which could impact European exports and economic growth. Europe will also face pressure to increase defense spending and a decline in business confidence due to increased geopolitical risks.

Trump has repeatedly stated that the US pays too much for defense of its European allies and questions NATO's role, which may lead European countries to increase their defense spending. In addition, Trump has promised to quickly resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reducing US spending in this area, which may require European partners to fill the related funding gap.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Eurozone's GDP will grow by 0.8% next year, lower than the previously predicted 1.1%. The bank's analysts wrote in a report on Wednesday, "Most of the factors dragging on economic growth will come from the uncertainty of trade policy... The uncertainty created by Trump's threats to impose tariffs on Europe may have a greater impact on economic growth than the actual tariff increases."

Europe's open economy is considered particularly vulnerable to the impact of Trump's protectionist agenda. During his campaign, Trump proposed imposing 10-20% tariffs on all imported goods, a significant increase from the current average tariff of 2%.

Trump's confrontational attitude towards trade relations also undermines the principles of open trade and competition that have driven global economic growth over the past few decades, benefiting the European Union, one of the world's largest trading blocs.

Germany is more vulnerable.

Goldman Sachs's core expectation is for "Trump to impose more limited tariffs on the European economy," mainly targeting their auto exports. This has brought more pain to Germany's struggling economy and the country's largest auto manufacturer Volkswagen, which has been plunged into the dilemma of layoffs and plant closures.

Due to trade tensions, Goldman Sachs currently expects Germany's economy to grow by only 0.5% next year, far below the previous forecast of 0.9%, and it also lowered the economic growth rate of the United Kingdom in 2025 from 1.6% to 1.4%.

Autos are Germany's largest single export product, and the USA is Germany's biggest export market. In September, Germany's exports to the USA reached 13.4 billion euros, a 1.1% increase compared to the same period last year.

Volkswagen's stock price fell sharply on Wednesday, but recovered most of the lost ground on Thursday. Although the USA accounts for less than 10% of Volkswagen's total sales volume, Volkswagen believes the US market has huge growth potential, especially in the field of electric cars.

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos also stated that if Trump implements the import tariffs he threatened during his campaign, global economic growth and inflation will face potential adverse impacts.

Berenberg Bank expects that Trump's presidency will not have a huge impact on Europe, but it has also lowered the Eurozone's GDP growth rate for next year by 0.1 percentage point, to 1%.

Berenberg Bank's Chief Economist Holger Schmieding stated on Thursday that for European companies, Trump's return to the White House signifies significant trade policy risks and geopolitical uncertainties.