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Despite the Downward Trend in Earnings at First Mid Bancshares (NASDAQ:FMBH) the Stock Soars 11%, Bringing One-year Gains to 51%

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 7 22:52

If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. To wit, the First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:FMBH) share price is 47% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 35% (not including dividends) in the same period. That's a solid performance by our standards! Unfortunately the longer term returns are not so good, with the stock falling 4.1% in the last three years.

The past week has proven to be lucrative for First Mid Bancshares investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's one-year performance.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over the last twelve months, First Mid Bancshares actually shrank its EPS by 1.1%.

Sometimes companies will sacrifice EPS in the short term for longer term gains; and in that case we may be able to find other positives. It makes sense to check some of the other fundamental data for an explanation of the share price rise.

However the year on year revenue growth of 22% would help. Many businesses do go through a phase where they have to forgo some profits to drive business development, and sometimes its for the best.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

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NasdaqGM:FMBH Earnings and Revenue Growth November 7th 2024

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. If you are thinking of buying or selling First Mid Bancshares stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for First Mid Bancshares the TSR over the last 1 year was 51%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that First Mid Bancshares shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 51% over one year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 7% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with First Mid Bancshares , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

We will like First Mid Bancshares better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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