The three major stock indexes in the U.S. rose and fell unevenly, with the Dow and Nasdaq hitting historical highs at the beginning of the session. As of the time of writing, the Dow fell 0.05%, the Nasdaq rose nearly 1%, and the s&p 500 index rose 0.43%.
The market was slightly calm on Thursday as investors had been dealing with the broad impact of Trump's victory. His election forced investors to accept the prospect of economic policies that could lead to a reduction in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the possibility of fiscal expansion under full Republican rule.
Driven by Trump's victory in the US presidential election, US stocks surged on Wednesday, with all three major indexes hitting record highs. The Dow soared by over 1500 points, and the Russell 2000 small cap index rose by more than 5%.
Bitcoin, the US dollar, and bank stocks all saw significant gains, as these stocks are believed to benefit from Trump's policies. Sectors that may be negatively impacted by Trump's policies, such as some international funds, solar energy stocks, and overseas electric vehicle stocks, experienced a general decline.
As the market generally expects Trump's policies to boost US inflation, yields have risen with increased expectations of consistency between the government's execution and the legislative branch on fiscal expansion. Fink pointed out: "Currently, the ratio of US debt to GDP is close to a historical high of 120%, and the budget deficit has exceeded 6% of GDP."
After a sharp rise in US bond yields on Wednesday, yields have slightly retreated on Thursday morning, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield holding steady at 4.42%, while the 30-year yield saw a slight increase to 4.61%.
Arnaud Girod, Head of Economics and Cross-Asset Strategy at Paris Kepler Cheuvreux, said: "Yesterday we saw a typical Trump trading pattern, but that quickly changed. US bond yields cannot continue to rise while the stock market is up. My view is that yields will stabilize."
Scott Helfstein, Head of Investment Strategy at Global X ETFs, said: "The election results are in, and the financial markets can breathe a sigh of relief without having to worry about a prolonged election process. Investors should still be cautious of overreacting or underreacting to geopolitical news. These events often lead to significant asset price volatility, but over time, fundamentals will prevail."
On Thursday, market participants will closely watch the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve and subsequent press conference by Chairman Powell.
The market still has confidence in the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, but expectations for further easing in December have slightly diminished. In the long term, Trump's trade and immigration policies may exacerbate inflation, potentially hindering the rate cut trajectory.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, Federal Funds futures are currently pricing in a 100% probability of the central bank lowering borrowing costs at this meeting. This would be the Fed's second consecutive rate cut after a significant 50 basis point cut in September.
In overseas central bank news, the Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, reducing its key rate from 5% to 4.75%.
Similar to the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England has enough confidence in the slowing inflation to continue reducing rates from decades-high levels. However, concerns exist that inflation could prove to be more sticky, potentially limiting the Bank of England from lowering rates to the same levels as the Fed or the European Central Bank.
Similar to the United States, government spending in the United Kingdom will increase post-election, potentially adding inflationary pressures. Bank of England Governor Bailey will explain today's rate decision in a press conference at 20:30.
The U.S. earnings season continues, with companies releasing earnings reports on Thursday including Moderna, Warner Bros. Discovery, Block, Pinterest, and Rivian.
On the economic data front on Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department reported a slight increase in initial jobless claims last week, indicating no substantial changes in the labor market conditions and reinforcing the view that hurricane and strikes led to almost stagnant job growth in October.
The Department of Labor's data on Thursday showed that in the week ending November 2, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 3,000 to 0.221 million, in line with market expectations. Last month, job growth slowed significantly, with non-farm employment increasing by only 0.012 million positions. Hurricane "Helen" disrupted economic activities in the southeastern United States.
The number of people applying for unemployment benefits remained high after Hurricane "Milton" hit Florida. The strike by Boeing factory workers also dragged down October's employment figures. The impact of the hurricane has now largely subsided, with Boeing strike workers returning to work this week after agreeing to a new contract, paving the way for accelerated employment growth in November.
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that non-farm productivity increased at an annual rate of 2.2% from July to September, similar to the growth rate in the previous quarter. Unit labor costs rose by 1.9%, with the growth rate for the previous quarter revised upward to 2.4%.
Analysis suggests that this data indicates that US third-quarter productivity growth was lower than expected, leading to a significant increase in labor costs, which may further exacerbate inflationary pressures.
Focus stocks
Growth tech stocks surged, with Qualcomm and Taiwan Semiconductor up by about 3%, Nvidia and Amazon up by over 1%.
China concept stocks rallied together, with Xpeng soaring over 12%, Bilibili up nearly 7%, and Alibaba up nearly 4%.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Rising more than 1%, the stock price hit a new high, Goldman Sachs reiterated a "buy" rating on Nvidia, and at the same time included it in the "conviction buy" list.
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Rising nearly 3%, news that it is about to receive subsidies from the US government's "Chip Act", the Arizona factory is expected to start production of 4nm process by early 2025.
$XPeng (XPEV.US)$ Surging over 12%, Xpeng P7+ officially launched, starting at 0.1868 million yuan, divided into three versions, with the long-range version priced at 1.868 million yuan, and the ultra-long-range version at 0.1988 million yuan.
$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ Dropping more than 16%, up nearly 6% from yesterday's close.
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