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特朗普第二个任期利好哪些股债?

What stocks and bonds are bullish for Trump's second term?

Barron's Weekly ·  Nov 7 21:55

After Trump's return to the White House, investors need to be prepared, as his first term can serve as a guideline for the future trends of the stock and bond markets. Here are four types of symbols that investors can consider when allocating their portfolios.

Bank stocks

After the news of Trump's victory over Harris on Wednesday, financial stocks surged significantly. $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ Leading the gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, stock prices hit new highs. Goldman Sachs' competitors $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ also surged significantly. $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$N/A.$Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$And$Bank of New York Mellon (BK.US)$The stock prices of large banks are also reaching new highs.

Even if long-term bond yields rise significantly, financial stocks are expected to benefit from the decrease in short-term interest rates. The decrease in short-term interest rates helps stimulate loan demand and increase the profits of bank loan businesses, which is an additional bullish factor for small banks, with regional bank stock ETFs. $Spdr Series Trust S&P Regional Bkg Etf (KRE.US)$ On Wednesday, it rose more than 10%.

特朗普胜选可能会带来一个金融监管减少、反垄断制度更加宽松的环境,这可能也是投资者推高银行股价格的原因之一。拿富国银行来说,如果监管机构取消几年前因虚假账户丑闻而为其制定的资产上限,该行股价可能会获得提振。

Merger活动有望变得更加活跃,进而为美国最大的几家银行的业务带来提振。与此同时,银行股估值依然有吸引力,按2025年预期盈利计算, $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF.US)$ 的市盈率约为16倍,区域性银行的估值更低,按明年预期盈利计算市盈率仅为12倍。

KBW董事总经理克里斯·麦克格拉蒂(Chris McGratty)预计,区域性银行的市盈率将上升,更宽松的监管环境和更活跃的并购活动是原因之一。

价值股

金融只是特朗普担任总统后会有更好表现的价值导向型行业之一,其他关注美国国内市场的周期性行业也将受益,它们的市盈率低于科技和通信服务板块中许多跟随“七巨头”势头的股票。

Value stocks ETF $Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF (VOOV.US)$ has a larger holding in financial, medical health, industrial, and consumer staples stocks, with a PE ratio of 16 based on expected earnings in 2025. In comparison, the growth stocks ETF $Ishares S&P 500 Growth Etf (IVW.US)$ has a PE ratio of 27, significantly higher than the 5-year average of 23 times. As the earnings momentum of value stocks picks up, the gap between the two is expected to narrow.

Jeff Schulze, Managing Director of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, said: 'We expect that with market expectations of stronger economic growth and higher earnings, cyclical industries will continue to lead in the coming months.'

health insurance companies$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$One of the best performing stocks in the Dow Jones on Wednesday, investors are betting that the Trump administration will focus on the Medicare Advantage plan and may reduce the scale of the Affordable Care Act. Construction giant $Caterpillar (CAT.US)$is another big winner in the Dow Jones after the election.$Nucor (NUE.US)$And.$Steel Dynamics (STLD.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Two stocks with leading percentage gains, both up more than 10%.

Small cap stocks.

In the past few years, the U.S. stock market has been dominated by large-cap stocks, and now it is time for investors to consider small cap stocks. After Trump's victory,$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$both the S&P Small Cap 600 index and the s&p 500 index surged more than 5% on Wednesday.

Small cap stocks are expected to benefit from trade protectionism, such as the trade policies implemented by Trump in his first term. Trump may impose higher tariffs on China, as well as on countries like Europe, Japan, Canada, and Mexico. Trump will pursue an America-first economic agenda, coupled with lowering the corporate tax rate, all of which are expected to boost small cap stocks.

The valuation of small cap stocks remains very attractive. The expected P/E ratio of the S&P Small Cap 600 index in 2025 is around 15 times, roughly in line with the 5-year average level, with a discount level slightly higher than the common level compared to the S&P 500 index.

Ray Baraldi, senior financial advisor at 213 Strategic Partners, said, "Small cap stocks are waiting for a breakthrough, Trump's victory may boost some small companies focused on the domestic market."

Short-term US Treasury bonds and junk bonds.

Investors need to be cautious when investing in fixed income products. On Tuesday night and Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell. Investors digested the fact that a Trump victory—and the possibility of the Republican Party winning both houses of Congress—might reignite inflation concerns.

Jim Lebenthal, partner and chief stock strategist at Cerity Partners, said, "It is crucial to pay attention to the changes in the 10-year US bond yield. If the yield breaks through the 4.5% level (currently hovering around 4.4%), investors may start worrying about how much further long-term yields could rise."

Given this, investors may want to focus more on shorter-term US Treasury bonds. iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond $iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY.US)$ remained flat on Wednesday, while $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ fell by 3%.

In addition to short-term US treasury bonds, bond investors can also consider high yield bonds, also known as junk bonds. $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf (HYG.US)$ Slightly up on Wednesday, $Ishares Iboxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Etf (LQD.US)$ down about 1%.

After Trump's victory, Wednesday's explosive rise in US stocks is a clear sign that risk trading is becoming popular again, which means that junk bonds may continue to outperform investment-grade bonds.

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