盈利预测与投资评级。考虑公司股权激励摊销成本，2024-2026 年公司归母净利润分别调整为1.62 亿元、2.48 元、3.73 亿元，对应增速分别为59.6%，53.2%，50.2%。对应PE 63X/41X/27X。维持“买入”评级。The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 0.98 billion yuan, +21.42% year on year; net profit to mother 0.102 billion yuan, +39.42% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 96.89 million, +21.98% year on year. In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 0.337 billion yuan, +19.37% year on year; net profit to mother 26.64 million yuan, -9.22% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 22.43 million yuan, or -31.38% year over year.
Performance growth is in line with expectations. The total amortization cost of the company's equity incentives for the first three quarters of 2024 was 24.5055 million yuan; the amortization cost of equity incentives for the third quarter of a single quarter was 16.6259 million yuan. Without considering the impact of income tax, after directly adding amortization costs of equity incentives, the company achieved net profit of 0.121 billion yuan and 0.039 billion yuan after deducting non-return to mother in the first three quarters of 2024 and 0.039 billion yuan respectively. The performance growth was in line with previous expectations.
Wait for the flowers to blossom: MASH's pharmaceutical industry is undergoing changes, and “water sellers” are expected to continue to benefit. FibroScan is a world-leading diagnostic device for liver fatness and fibrosis, and has been widely recognized as the preferred diagnostic tool for MASH. In March 2024, Rezdiffra, the first new drug approved by the FDA to treat MASH, included the FibroScan test in the manual; on November 1, 2024, Novo Nordisk announced the main positive results of the first part of the simeglutide ESSENCE study. Compared with placebo, simeglutide 2.4 mg has significant statistical significance in improving liver fibrosis, and is expected to apply for regulatory approval in the US and EU in the first half of 2025. With the improvement of MASH testing systems in domestic and foreign medical institutions, the establishment of doctors' habits, and the increase in MASH drug sales, the testing needs of patients with confirmed or suspected liver disease and routine screening and diagnosis needs of the general population will further increase, further highlighting the key role of FibroScan in MASH diagnosis, promoting large-scale upgrading of related tests, and driving the company's performance growth and long-term sustainable development.
Profit forecasting and investment ratings. Considering the company's equity incentive amortization costs, the company's net profit to mother was adjusted to 0.162 billion yuan, 2.48 yuan, and 0.373 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, corresponding growth rates of 59.6%, 53.2%, and 50.2%, respectively. Compatible with PE 63X/41X/27X. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Fibroscan GO's launch falls short of expectations, research and development of MASH-related drugs falls short of expectations, competition increases risk; risk of fluctuating raw material prices.
