Key investment points

On November 1, 2024, Xiaopeng Motor announced delivery data for October. In October 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 23,917 new cars, up 20% year on year and 12% month on month. From January to October 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 122,478 new vehicles, an increase of 21% over the previous year.

MONA M03 was popular immediately after launch, and P7+ is expected to continue to be popular

Xiaopeng Motor's delivery capacity has been rising steadily, and delivery reached a new high in October. In October 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 2.4 new cars, up 20% year on year and 12% month on month. Among them, Xiaopeng MONA M03 delivered over 10,000 units in a row in the two months it went on sale. On October 10, the Xiaopeng P7+ debuted; on October 14, the Xiaopeng P7+ went on pre-sale in Paris. The pre-sale price of the Xiaopeng P7+ starts at 0.2098 million yuan, and the number of orders exceeded 0.03 million vehicles in just 1 hour and 48 minutes.

Popular models are frequently appearing to guarantee full orders, delivery data is expected to be fulfilled, and Xiaopeng Motor's new car cycle has officially started.

All P7+ models are equipped with a new pure vision solution as standard to accelerate smart driving technology equality

In October, the penetration rate of monthly active users of smart driving in XNGP urban areas reached 86%. AI Tianji 5.4.0 is officially open beta, bringing users a total of 248 feature updates, covering the four major fields of AI smart driving, AI cockpit, AI chassis, and AI connectivity. Xiaopeng launched an AI Hawkeye vision solution to fully solve problems such as light differences, and debuted on the new Xiaopeng P7+ model in October 2024. The Xiaopeng P7+ will be equipped with end-to-end AI smart driving as standard, with no optional, no subscription, and no payment, so that users can accelerate the upgrade of their ability to experience intelligent driving, and customer stickiness is expected to increase.

Global strategy is accelerating, and overseas market sales are expected to increase

The global layout is accelerating, and overseas has become another driving force for growth. In October, Xiaopeng Motors held the Xiaopeng G6 and G9 press conferences in Dubai to announce its official entry into the UAE market. As of November 2024, Xiaopeng has listed in the Middle East and North Africa regions, including the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, etc. In the future, Xiaopeng Motor will continue to expand in core regions such as Europe, ASEAN, the Middle East, Latin America, and Oceania, or fulfill overseas sales.

Smart global collaboration upgrade, Xiaopeng is expected to be Nirvana

We expect the company's sales volume in 2024/2025/2026 to be 0.18/0.45/0.67 million vehicles, with corresponding revenue of 43.6/79.3/104.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 42%/82%/32%, respectively. Net profit to mother was -5.05/-0.5/2.3 billion yuan, respectively. The new model is about to be launched, and it is expected to reach an inflection point in sales. The iterative catalyst for intelligent driving and the pace of model launch are expected to help the company reverse financial data, cooperate with the public, or further expand the company's revenue and technical capabilities. Maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: The speed of implementation of intelligent and large models falls short of expectations. Due to the impact of the passenger car price war, technology transformation falls short of expectations.