公司发布2024 年三季报：2024 年前三季度公司实现营收36.75亿元/-6.46%，归母净利润2.66 亿元/-23.80%，扣非归母净利润2.33 亿元/-28.32%，基本EPS 为0.61 元/-24.57%，ROE（加权）为8.04%/-3.67pct。Core views
The 24Q3 company's revenue was -10.14% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to mother was -30.93%, mainly due to weak demand for retail home furnishings and a decline in bulk business revenue; the weak profit performance was mainly due to the company increasing terminal concessions and increasing investment in marketing. The 24Q3 company's gross margin was 37.04%/-3.65pct, and the net interest rate was 8.03% /-2.41pct. Divided channels, retail channels declined by more than double digits due to terminal customer traffic, overall stability in bulk channels, and high growth in overseas business. The doorwall business continues to expand, and traditional kitchen cabinet and wardrobe stores are currently being optimized and adjusted. In the future, the company will continue to promote channel layout and continue to deepen the overall package. Overseas business is expected to contribute an incremental portion; retail sales are expected to gradually improve with the implementation of trade-in subsidies.
occurrences
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report: In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.675 billion yuan/ -6.46%, net profit due to mother 0.266 billion/ -23.80%, net profit excluding non-return to mother 0.233 billion/ -28.32%, basic EPS of 0.61 yuan/ -24.57%, and ROE (weighted) of 8.04% /-3.67pct.
Brief review
Q3 Revenue and performance were under pressure, and terminal concessions+cost investment dragged down profit margins. The 24Q3 company achieved revenue of 1.463 billion yuan/ -10.14%, net profit of 0.117 billion yuan/ -30.93%, net profit after deduction of 0.107 billion yuan/ -33.05%, mainly due to weak retail home improvement demand and declining bulk business revenue; the weak profit performance was mainly due to the company's increased terminal concessions and increased marketing investment. 24Q3's gross margin was 37.04% /3.65pct, and the net profit margin was 8.03% /- 2.41 pct, 24Q3 sales, management, R&D, and finance cost rates were 18.22% /+3.48pct, 5.10% /+0.20pct, 5.21% /-0.56pct, 0.31% /+0.41pct, respectively.
Divided channels and bulk channels are stable overall, and overseas business is growing rapidly. 1) Retail channels (distribution+direct management): 24Q1-3's direct-run stores and dealerships had revenue of 0.253 and 1.917 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding 24Q3 revenue was 0.078 billion yuan/ -30% and 0.75 billion yuan/ -13.2% respectively, mainly due to a decline in offline customer traffic; 2) Large channels: 24Q1-3 revenue was 1.105 billion yuan/ +1.0%, Q3 was 0.5 billion yuan/- 6.7%. The company actively develops products such as senior-friendly apartments, enterprise apartments, talent apartments, and engineering solutions. In addition, the company actively explores overseas markets. Among them, Australia and the US are mainly B-side large-scale businesses, providing customized products for engineering contractors. Southeast Asia is mainly C-side brand stores. Overseas revenue in 24Q1-3 was 0.131 billion yuan/ +35.2%, Q3 was 0.045 billion yuan/ +22.9% in a single quarter.
By product, traditional stores are being optimized offline, and the doors continue to gain strength. The revenue of 24Q1-3 cabinets, wardrobes, and wooden doors was 1.662, 1.504, and 0.24 billion yuan, respectively, -5.2%, -10.2%, and +0.5%. The corresponding Q3 single quarter was 0.695, 0.576, and 0.101 billion yuan, respectively, -7.1%, -16.5%, and -7.2%. The company focuses on an integrated overall strategy. By the end of September 2024, there were 1618, 1821, and 1120 kitchen cabinet, wardrobe, and wooden door stores respectively, compared to -97, -29, and +137 at the end of 23.
Profit forecast: Based on sluggish offline consumption and the decline in new housing completion, the profit forecast is estimated to be 5.71, 6.13, 6.55 billion yuan (previous values 5.96, 6.44, 6.87 billion yuan), -6.7%, +7.4%, and +6.9% YoY; net profit to mother is 0.475, 0.525, 0.571 billion yuan (previous value 0.542, 0.593, 0.645 billion yuan), + 10.4%, +8.9%, corresponding PE is 12.7, 11.5, 10.6 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) Risk of increased competition in the industry: Custom furniture companies are expanding their categories one after another, from customizing kitchen cabinets and wardrobe items to the field of whole house customization. Industry penetration has increased, leading to increased market competition. Although the company is a leading enterprise in the domestic custom furniture industry and has a strong competitive advantage in brand management, marketing networks, design and development, etc., the intensification of market competition may lead to a decline in the average profit margin of the industry, which will adversely affect the company's production and operation. 2) Risk of fluctuations in raw material prices: The raw materials required for the production of the company's products mainly include boards, countertops, kitchen appliances and hardware accessories. The company's direct material prices have a great impact on the company's main business costs. Although the purchase price of the company's main raw materials fluctuated slightly during the reporting period, if the purchase price of raw materials fluctuates greatly in the future, it may adversely affect the company's operations.
