TriMas Corporation (NASDAQ:TRS) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues came in 4.2% below expectations, at US$229m. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of US$0.97 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for TriMas from two analysts is for revenues of US$994.6m in 2025. If met, it would imply a meaningful 9.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 203% to US$1.98. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$963.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.22 in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on TriMas after the latest results; even though they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a real cut to per-share earnings expectations.
The analysts also upgraded TriMas' price target 39% to US$34.12, implying that the higher revenue expected to generate enough value to offset the forecast decline in earnings.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting TriMas' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.7% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.8% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that TriMas is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on TriMas. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that TriMas is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
