染发剂原料下游库存消化中，募投项目今年年中逐步落地推进染发剂原料下游客户整体处于去库阶段，今年上半年库存逐步得到消化，目前处于末期，预计明年结束，未来染发剂原料库存有望进入新一轮景气补库阶段。新产能方面，公司实现了对内蒙鼎利的完全持股，完善了产业链布局，鼎利科技和公司主体间将加强产业协同，丰富产品矩阵。募投项目中两个车间 555 吨产能于 6 月中旬开始试产，逐步放大、爬坡，预计在明年上半年完成竣 工验收；第三个车间 305 吨产能将于年末开始试生产。 随着主业染发剂原料下游去库完成以及新产能陆续投产，我们预计公司将保持稳定增长趋势。Description of the event
On the evening of October 30, 2024, Dinglong Technology released its 2024 three-quarter report. 2024Q3 achieved operating income of 0.165 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.76%, a year-on-month decrease of 4.36%, net profit to mother of 0.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.01%, a year-on-month increase of 23.98%, gross sales margin of 40.57%, and a month-on-month change of +7.92 pct.
The volume and price of plant protection materials rose sharply in Q3, the volume and price of raw materials for hair dyes weakened, and part of the company's main product was agreed through an annual framework agreement. Affected by product restructuring, there were quarterly product volume and price differences. Q3 plant protection material sales reached 108 tons, an increase of 139.9% month-on-month, and the average price in Q3 reached 0.31 million yuan/ton, an increase of 45.9% month-on-month. The sharp rise in the volume and price of plant protection materials showed impressive results. The third quarter was affected by the differentiation of customer orders. There was a difference in the volume and price of hair dye raw materials and special engineering materials. Sales of hair dye raw materials in Q3 reached 414 tons, down 2.4% from month to month, and the average price in Q3 reached 0.26 million yuan/ton, down 10.9% from month to month. In the third quarter, due to differences in customer orders, there was a difference in the volume and price of hair dye raw materials and special engineering materials. Sales of hair dye raw materials in Q3 reached 48 tons, down 14.3% from the previous month, and the average price in Q3 reached 0.32 million yuan/ton, up 6.9% from month to month. Hair dye raw materials are the company's largest revenue segment. The sharp drop in the volume and price of hair dye ingredients affected the company's revenue in the short term, while product structure improvements improved the company's gross margin in the third quarter. The gross profit margin of Q3 sales was 40.57%, a change of +7.92 pct from month to month.
Downstream stocks of hair dye raw materials are being digested, and the fund-raising project is gradually being implemented in the middle of this year. The overall downstream customers of hair dye raw materials are in the storage stage. Inventory in the first half of this year was gradually digested. It is currently in the final stages. It is expected to end next year. In the future, stocks of hair dye raw materials are expected to enter a new round of boom replenishment. In terms of new production capacity, the company has achieved full shareholding in Dingli, Inner Mongolia, and improved the industrial chain layout. Dingli Technology and the company's players will strengthen industrial collaboration and enrich the product matrix. The 555-ton production capacity of the two workshops in the fund-raising project began trial production in mid-June, gradually expanding and climbing. It is expected to complete completion and acceptance in the first half of next year; trial production of the third workshop with a production capacity of 305 tons will begin at the end of the year. With the completion of downstream storage of the main hair dye raw materials and the commissioning of new production capacity one after another, we expect the company to maintain a steady growth trend.
Investment advice
Considering that downstream customers of hair dye ingredients are in the process of being removed from storage, we lowered the company's profit forecast for 2024-2026. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 0.16, 0.213, and 0.266 billion yuan, respectively (the previous values for 2024-2026 were 0.222, 0.274, and 0.319 billion yuan, respectively), with year-on-year growth rates of -8.0%, 32.8%, and 25.2%. The current stock price is 28, 21, and 17 times PE, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
(1) Risks caused by price fluctuations of raw materials and major products; (2) production safety risks;
(3) Environmental protection risks;
(4) The project's commissioning schedule fell short of expectations.
