haitong sec's research shows that li auto inc (02015) achieved a total revenue of 42.9 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35%; achieved a net income of 2.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 156%. The company expects the car delivery volume in Q4 24 to be between 0.16 million units and 0.17 million units, with a year-on-year range of +21.4% to +29.0%; the corresponding revenue is expected to be around 43.2 billion yuan to 45.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year range of +3.5% to +10.0%.
The bank pointed out that with the full push of li auto inc's NOA in July 24 and further enhancement of active safety capabilities, the proportion of orders for the ADMax version continues to increase, especially for models priced above 0.3 million yuan, where the proportion of ADMax versions is close to 70%. As of September 24, the total number of smart driving users for li auto inc reached 0.96 million, with a cumulative smart driving mileage of 2.4 billion kilometers and NOA mileage of 1.2 billion kilometers. On October 23, 24, li auto inc's end-to-end + VLM dual-system intelligent driving solution was fully pushed with the OTA 6.4 version vehicle system. The bank is bullish that the strengthening of intelligent capabilities will further drive the increase in sales of high-end configurations for the company.
The bank stated that it is expected that the company will sell new cars in 2024/25/26 of 0.51/0.71/0.85 million units respectively, with revenue of 146/206.4/250.2 billion yuan, net income attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 7.6/13.4/18.9 billion yuan, and EPS of 3.58/6.30/8.92 yuan respectively. Considering that the new energy vehicle industry is still rapidly developing, the bank values the company using the PS method. As of the closing market cap on November 6, 2024, the PS multiples for 2024/25/26 correspond to 1.3/0.9/0.7 times respectively. Referring to comparable companies, the bank assigns a PS multiple of 1.4-1.5 for the company in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 105.56-113.10 Hong Kong dollars (converted at an exchange rate of 1 Hong Kong dollar = 0.9124 RMB). Maintaining an "outperform market" rating.
