公司发布2024 年三季报， 单Q3 实现营收、归母、扣非5.53/0.17/ -0.07 亿元， 同比+12.3%/ 扭亏/ 减亏， 环比+16.7%/+10.2%/ 转亏。Q1-Q3 实现营收、归母、扣非14.12/0.37/-0.13 亿元，同比-53.7%/-94.3%/ -102.1%。Core views
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. The company achieved revenue, return to mother, and deducted non-5.53/0.17/ -0.007 billion yuan in Q3, +12.3%/reversal of losses/ loss reduction compared to the same period, and +16.7%/+10.2%/loss from month to month. Q1-Q3 achieved revenue, return to mother, and deducted non-1.412/0.037/-0.013 billion yuan, or -53.7%/-94.3%/-102.1% year-on-year. Shipments in Q3 were 421 MWh, which continued to increase from month to month. The negative change was mainly due to exchange losses. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter and next year, as overseas inventories fall to normal levels, European demand gradually recovers, and the company continues to develop commercial and commercial storage products and domestic markets, the company's shipments are expected to continue to rise, and profit levels are expected to resume growth.
occurrences
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In a single Q3, revenue, return to mother, and deducted non-5.53/0.17/ -0.007 billion yuan, +12.3%/reverse loss/loss reduction over the same period last year, and +16.7%/+10.2%/change of loss over the previous quarter. Q1-Q3 achieved revenue, return to mother, and deducted non-1.412/0.037/-0.013 billion yuan, or -53.7%/-94.3%/-102.1% year-on-year.
Brief review
Q3 Shipments continued to grow month-on-month, and demand recovered
The company's product sales volume in the first half of the year was 571 MWh, and the Q1 and Q2 split were about 250 MWh and 321 MWh respectively. Meanwhile, Q3 achieved sales volume of 421 MWh, a year-on-year increase of 44.18%, a month-on-month increase of 31.15%, and the year-on-month growth has resumed. As the inventory level of European distributors gradually declined, since 2024, the company's sales volume and revenue of energy storage products have increased sequentially from quarter to quarter, and the business trend has gradually improved.
Prices and gross profit have declined due to exchange effects. Foreign currency prices are expected to be relatively stable. The unit prices for Q1, Q2, and Q3 are about 1.54 yuan/Wh, 1.48 yuan/Wh, and 1.31 yuan/Wh, respectively, with gross margins of 35.8%, 38.5%, and 33%, respectively. Q3 The month-on-month decline in prices and gross margins was mainly due to an increase in the RMB exchange rate. Foreign currency prices and gross margins are expected to remain stable.
Profitability is expected to increase even after considering foreign exchange
Q1, Q2, and Q3 sales volumes were approximately 250 MWh, 321 MWh, and 421 MWh, respectively.
Net profit from a single Wh to mother was -0.02, 0.05, and 0.04 yuan/Wh, respectively. Among them, the Q3 month-on-month decline was mainly due to exchange losses. Excluding the impact of exchange, it is expected to increase slightly month-on-month.
The impairment is expected to be due to a drop in inventory prices, while inventory has increased
Q3 Asset depreciation of 21 million and credit impairment of 4.7 million is expected to be due to falling inventory prices, etc. Inventory: Inventory at the end of the Q2 period was 0.714 billion, up from 0.685 billion at the end of the Q2 period. This may be due to demand for stocking.
Investment recommendations and performance forecasts
The company's 2024, 2025, and 2026 returns are expected to be 0.12, 0.34, and 0.445 billion yuan, respectively, with valuations of 100, 35, and 27 times, respectively.
Risk analysis
1) Demand side: The recovery in overseas household storage demand fell short of expectations, and the progress of overseas inventory removal fell short of expectations.
2) Supply side: Higher lithium prices raise costs, or lower prices too quickly lead to wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream.
3) Policy aspects: Overseas subsidy policies fall short of expectations.
4) In terms of the international situation: international trade barriers have deepened, exports have been blocked; requirements for localized production have increased, and overseas factories have raised costs; international conflicts have blocked overseas transportation and increased freight rates.
5) Market side: Increased competition has led to lower gross profit margins and profitability of energy storage batteries, integrators, and PCS manufacturers than expected.
6) Technical aspects: The battery-centered product strategy lost market share, and inverter development was blocked.
