He remains optimistic about emerging market assets, particularly Asian emerging markets.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhao Yaoting, a global market strategist at Invesco Asia Pacific (excluding Japan), responded to the US election results and their views on the Asian market. Looking forward to the future, Trump's re-election may bring short-term fluctuations to the Asian market. The North Asian market will be dominated by artificial intelligence investment themes. Under the framework of Trump's proposed tariff policy, the Indian and ASEAN markets are likely to perform better. In Asia, we are still optimistic about the Japanese and Indian markets.
According to Zhao Yaoting's analysis, the market's instinctive reaction is that a massive victory for the White House and the potential Republican Party in the “Trump 2.0” era will benefit the US economy and market, but due to the tax and trade policies proposed by the new administration, it will not be so beneficial to the rest of the world. The US market has responded positively, reflecting the market's expectation that the new administration will further reduce corporate taxes, relax regulations, and introduce fiscal incentives.
He remains optimistic about emerging market assets, particularly Asian emerging markets. Despite the results of the US election, this optimistic view is maintained.
He believes that YAZHOUZICHAN are still attractive, especially in the long run. Asian economies are fairly stable, facing lower inflationary pressure, and will grow faster than developed markets next year. Asian stock market valuations are more attractive. Many Asian economies are benefiting from the AI investment theme, and central banks in the Asian region have begun to relax their monetary policies. Overall, he believes investors will be more concerned about differences in valuation and growth than trade tensions.
However, the main resistance in the Asian market in the near future will come from the tariff policy proposed by Trump. On the face of it, escalating trade tension and rising tariffs will lead to poor global growth performance, and emerging markets are likely to bear the brunt.
However, Trump's current tariff proposal may only represent the worst. It is estimated that the new administration will delay the imposition of these tariffs to win concessions, whether it is to push other economies to buy more US soybeans or geopolitical concessions.
Second, he believes that the market may be overestimating the economic impact of Trump's proposed tariff policy on the entire Asian region. Since the first trade friction, trade tension has continued for seven years, and many multinational companies have used this time to diversify their supply chains.