After Trump won the US election, the price of gold futures plummeted.
According to the intelligence news, after Trump won the US election, the price of gold futures plummeted. At the same time, this news drove the US bond yields, the US dollar, and US stocks to rise strongly. As of the time of writing, gold futures fell to a low of about $2663 per ounce; since gold futures hit a historical high of $2805 per ounce one week ago, the price of gold has fallen by more than 5%.
Previously, driven by increased global central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and declining interest rates, gold experienced a year-long rally. Due to concerns that Trump's proposed tariffs and immigration may reignite inflation, this rebound has reversed. LPL Financial's Chief Technical Strategist, Adam Turnquist, stated that the rise in economic growth and inflation expectations on Wednesday pushed up bond yields and the US dollar, reducing the attractiveness of gold to investors without interest returns.
Gold has a negative correlation with the US dollar. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose by 17 basis points to a four-month high of 4.46%, despite the Fed preparing to cut interest rates again this week. At the same time, the US dollar rose 1.6% against a basket of other currencies. Silver, platinum, copper, and other major metal commodities also saw significant declines on Wednesday.
Turnquist said, 'The continued strength of the US dollar may drag down international stock markets, especially emerging markets and most major commodities. Platinum, gold, and silver are the most severely negatively correlated major commodities with the US dollar.'
Nevertheless, due to the demand for physical gold from major central banks, investors pouring into physical gold ETFs, and expectations of speculative positions continuing, many analysts expect the price of gold to further rise. Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2025, the price of gold will reach $3000 per ounce. Goldman's Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote, 'History shows that when there is uncertainty and investors seek safe havens, gold holdings often rise.'
Citi pointed out in research reports that historically, gold usually performs poorly after US presidential elections. For example, after Trump took office in 2016, gold fell by 8% within a month. However, Citi pointed out that this trend provides investors with buying opportunities on dips and still believes that the price of gold will rise to $3000 per ounce within 6 months.
Undoubtedly, the price of gold is under short-term pressure, but J.P. Morgan stated last week that the long-term driving factors for gold prices still exist, not altering the optimistic view in the long term: gold continues to be the primary beneficiary of the Fed's rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and global trading aimed at currency devaluation. These driving factors have supported gold prices at various times over the past year, and regardless of the US election results, these driving factors may continue to exist.
The global commodity analysis team led by Natasha Kaneva wrote in the report: Regardless of the outcome of the US election, supportive factors still exist, and we will consider any post-election pullback as a buying opportunity on dips.