①At the end of October, the real estate market accelerated its sales momentum, how does the market view its sustainability? ②Mainland real estate stocks in Hong Kong have surged again, how do institutions view this?
Financial Association News November 7th (Editor Feng Yi) Today, mainland real estate stocks in Hong Kong have surged again, becoming the highlight of the market.
As of the time of publication, shimao group (00813.HK) surged over 29%, r&f properties (02777.HK) rose by over 23%, radiance hldgs (09993.HK), ronshinechina (03301.HK) also both surged over 20%. Sino-ocean gp (03377.HK), agile group (03383.HK) and other real estate companies also saw double-digit increases.
On the news front, in October, the year-on-year sales area of new houses nationwide increased for the first time after a continuous decline for several months, and the total volume of transactions of new and second-hand houses surpassed the 'golden nine' of the past 17 years during the 'silver ten'.
In addition, analyst Dan Ge from Huachuang Securities pointed out in a report on November 6th. According to the release of sales and land acquisition data from the top 100 real estate companies by CRIC, the equity sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies in October was 343.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and a 46% increase from the previous month.
However, it is worth noting that since September, a series of real estate-related policies have been continuously introduced and implemented at an accelerated pace. The actual market has long had certain expectations of the stabilization of the real estate market in October, and the current divergence in the mainland real estate market is focused on the sustainability of the real estate market recovery.
According to statistics from Huaxi Securities, in the last week of October (October 25-31), the transaction area of new homes in 50 cities increased by 19% month-on-month, with a transaction volume equivalent to 85% of the year's high point. Transactions surged, and the heat for new homes continued.
On the other hand, among the many 'incremental policies' supporting real estate, the collection and storage of existing homes is also a driving factor of short-term attention.
According to reports, following the Ministry of Finance's proposal to purchase existing commodity housing with special bonds for use in the indemnificatory housing policy, progress in the acquisition of existing stock rooms has accelerated in many places. By the end of October, local housing and construction departments in Hangzhou, Harbin, Yinchuan, and other places successively announced the details of the acquisition, which also boosted short-term market sentiment towards real estate stocks.
Statistics from China Real Estate Index Institute show that more than 50 cities have issued announcements this year to acquire existing commodity housing for use as affordable housing sources.
Analysts Sun Binbin and Sui Xiuping from Tianfeng Securities also analyzed in their report on November 7 that, in addition to fiscal policies, the market is focusing on the intensity of real estate policies. It is estimated that special bonds will be issued to support real estate acquisitions. The focus of subsequent policies is whether to increase central bank re-lending or PSL, further enhancing monetization, and promoting real estate stabilization.
Overall, with continuous progress in real estate debt restructuring and combined with policy support, the real estate market's sales side has warmed up, further boosting investors' expectations and trading sentiment, thereby benefiting mainland real estate stocks.
Guolian Securities also stated that the current A-share and Hong Kong stock real estate sector P/B ratios are at historically low levels. As policy effects gradually show, market confidence is expected to be boosted, driving stable sales volume.
