新市场新产品加大投入，费用端增加导致Q3 业绩短期承压；若加回费用，公司经营性利润同比正增长。单季度来看：2024Q3，公司实现营收1.44 亿元，同比+19.66%，环比-29.77%；实现归母净利-0.05亿元，同比转盈为亏，减少约0.12 亿元；实现扣非归母净利-0.08 亿元，同比转盈为亏，减少约0.12 亿元。具体分析来看，利润的同比下滑主要由于费用端的增加，2024Q3 公司销售费用同比增加约0.04亿元，研发费用同比增加约0.14 亿元，主要是公司为了进一步开拓新市场和新产品加大了渠道和研发投入。如果把这两项费用合计增量约0.18 亿元加回的话，公司的经营性利润同比正增长。Key investment points
Incident: Zhongjian Technology revealed its 2024 three-quarter report.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 0.621 billion yuan, +31.38% year-on-year; realized net profit of 0.04 billion yuan, or -19.40% year-on-year; and realized net profit of 0.033 billion yuan without return to mother, or -21.47% year-on-year.
Investment in new markets and new products increased, and the increase in the cost side put pressure on Q3 performance in the short term; if fees were added back, the company's operating profit increased positively year-on-year. Looking at a single quarter: 2024Q3, the company achieved revenue of 0.144 billion yuan, +19.66% year over month; realized net profit attributable to mother of -0.005 billion yuan, turning profit into loss year on year, reducing by about 0.012 billion yuan; realized net profit without return to mother of -0.008 billion yuan, which turned profit into loss year on year, reduced by about 0.012 billion yuan. According to specific analysis, the year-on-year decline in profit was mainly due to an increase on the cost side. 2024Q3's sales expenses increased by about 0.004 billion yuan year on year, and R&D expenses increased by about 0.014 billion yuan year on year. The main reason was that the company increased channels and R&D investment to further develop new markets and new products. If the total increase of these two expenses is about 0.018 billion yuan is added back, the company's operating profit increased positively over the same period last year.
The recovery momentum of garden machinery is evident, and the company is actively exploring the North American market to further expand its global footprint. The company's main business, garden machinery products, accounted for more than 90% of export sales. Previously, it was mainly in Europe. In recent years, the company has focused on developing the North American market and expanding the company's global sales map, and the garden machinery business is expected to usher in a new growth point. At present, the company has established good cooperative relationships with online and offline channels in the US, including supermarkets such as Homedepot, Lowes, Tsc, etc., and the Amazon platform.
Entering the intelligent robot sector, the second growth curve begins. In March 2024, the company invested in 1X, a world-renowned humanoid robot company. The products developed by 1X include the first-generation humanoid robot EVE and the first-generation biped robot NEO. In addition to equity investment cooperation, the company's own subsidiaries are also increasing intelligent investment and transformation. Jiangsu Jianmi, a subsidiary of Zhongjian, released the four-legged robot P1, which is targeted at inspection, survey, and security scenarios. The first generation product has already been initially formed during early preparations and will be introduced to the market as planned. The company's subsidiary Shanghai Gao Krypton focused on developing a lawnmower robot, which is an intelligent upgrade of the company's main garden machinery products. The robot can achieve functions such as independent mapping, planning and cutting, autonomous transition, AI intelligent obstacle avoidance, autonomous return, and accurate docking and charging. The company's R&D investment also shows the company's determination to transform and upgrade. We continue to be optimistic about the company's long-term industrial trends in the intelligent and robotics sector, which is expected to become the company's second growth curve.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 0.892/1.276/1.719 billion yuan, up 33.84%/43.00%/34.70% year on year; net profit to mother is 0.058/0.099/0.155 billion yuan, up 21.27%/70.05%/55.93% year on year; corresponding PE is 109.22/64.23/41.19 times, respectively, with initial coverage, giving an “increase” rating.
Risk warning:
The risk of overseas policy changes; the risk that the company's new product development and implementation progress falls short of expectations; the risk of changes in downstream channel cooperation; the risk that downstream demand falls short of expectations.
