投资建议：综 合考虑财报表现与2024年信贷增长情况，调整邮储银行2024-2026 年净利润增速预测为0.35%/2.44%/4.79%，对应BVPS8.48（-0.01）/9.01（+0.02）/9.58（-0.03）元。考虑到近期一揽子稳经济政策密集出台，利好银行信用风险缓释和信贷需求恢复，进而推动银行板块估值修复，参考可比同业，上调邮储银行目标价至6.51 元，对应2024 年0.77 倍PB，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The performance of the Postbank in the third quarter of 2024 was in line with expectations. The growth rate of revenue and net profit in a single quarter was corrected, the debt advantage continued, asset quality remained superior to that of peers, and maintained an increase in holdings rating.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Taking into account financial performance and credit growth in 2024, adjust the net profit growth forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.35%/2.44%/4.79%, corresponding to BVPS8.48 (-0.01) /9.01 (+0.02) /9.58 (-0.03) yuan. Considering the recent intensive introduction of a package of economic stabilization policies, which are beneficial to banks' credit risk mitigation and credit demand recovery, thereby promoting valuation repair in the banking sector, referring to comparable peers, the Postbank's target price was raised to 6.51 yuan, corresponding to 0.77 times PB in 2024, maintaining an increase rating.
Marginal improvement in performance. The company's 2024Q3 revenue growth rate was 0.5% year on year, and net profit growth rate was 3.5% year on year. The growth rate changed from negative to positive compared to Q2. Among them, net interest income grew at a rate of 0.7%, maintaining positive growth; the growth rate of net income from handling fees and commissions was 0.8%, the first time since 2023Q2. The company continued to promote diversified development of intermediary business. Investment banking, transaction banking, and corporate finance businesses achieved relatively rapid growth to respond positively to the impact of the “integrated reporting and banking” policy on the agency insurance business; other non-interest net income growth rate was -2.6%. The year-on-year decline in investment income dragged down revenue performance. On the cost side, Q3 business and management fees fell 4.2% year-on-year. It is presumed that this was due to a reduction in savings agency rates. Cost savings eventually brought the Q3 net profit growth rate back to 3.5%.
The debt advantage continues, and interest spreads are still under downward pressure. By the end of 2024Q3, the company's debt increased 9.1% year on year, deposits increased 11.2% year on year, and deposits increased 272.7 billion yuan year on year. The deposit growth rate was clearly superior to that of peers. The cost ratio of interest-paying debt in the first three quarters was 1.49%, down 2 bps from the first half of the year, down 8 bps year on year, and the debt advantage is still significant. The net interest spread for the first three quarters was 1.89%, down 2 bps from the first half of the year. The main reason was the decline in loan pricing combined with an increase in the share of public loans with lower pricing. As a result, the company's return on assets declined faster, hedging the impact of improved debt costs, and net interest spreads are still facing downward pressure.
Asset quality has fluctuated slightly, but it is still at a competitive level in the industry. At the end of 2024Q3, the company's non-performing loan ratio was 0.86%, and the overdue loan ratio was 1.11%, up 2bp, 10bp, and 5bp respectively from the end of Q2. The annualized bad generation rate in the first three quarters was 0.79%, up 5 bps from the first half of the year. It is estimated that retail loan pressure has increased marginally. The company's provision coverage rate at the end of Q3 was 302%, down 23.7 percentage points from the end of Q2. Overall, the quality of the company's assets is under marginal pressure, but the absolute level is still excellent, and the ability to offset risks is strong.
Risk warning: Demand recovery fell short of expectations; retail loan risk exposure exceeded expectations.
