国证国际预测中广核电力2024-2026年归母净利润分别为120亿元/134亿元/149亿元。
智通财经APP获悉，国证国际发布研究报告称，维持中广核电力(01816)“买入”评级，预测公司2024-2026年的营收分别为883亿元/920亿元/978亿元，增速为7.0%/4.2%/6.3%；归母净利润分别为120亿元/134亿元/149亿元，增速为12.5%/11.2%/11.1%。24年公司发电量预计同比稳健提升，预计公司今年整体表现保持稳健，维持目标价3.8港元。
国证国际主要观点如下：
前三季度实现营收623.7亿元，同比增加4.06%
2024前三季度公司实现上网电量1668.9亿千瓦时，同比增长4.97%，其中来自子公司上网电量为1303.32千瓦时，同比增加5.02%，来自联营公司上网电量为365.58千瓦时，同比增加4.78%。公司实现营收623.7亿元，同比增加4.06%，扣非归母净利润为97.4亿元，同比增加0.91%，成本增加是由于新机组首次换料成本增加以及部分机组运营年数满5年开始计提乏燃料处理基金。预计公司全年发电量与业绩表现保持稳健上升。
市场化交易电量稳健上涨，平均电价基本持平
前三季度市场化交易电量约为854.9亿千瓦时，占比51.2%，同比增加0.7%。平均市场化交易电量实现价格含税约为0.39元/千瓦时，比去年同期下降约1分钱，基本持平。
新核准项目增加，在建项目稳步推进
在今年8月份国常会新核准5个核电项目，共计11台机组；其中中广核共拿到3个项目，6台机组，分别为山东招远1、2号机组，广东陆丰1、2号机组以及浙江苍南3、4号机组。目前公司项目充足共有在建核电机组16台，看好未来新机组加速并网所带来的增长动能。
风险提示：机组发电量不及预期；机组大修时间超预期；电价低于预期；核电站建设进度不及预期；核燃料价格超预期；核电行业政策收紧。
Guosen Securities International predicts that CGN Power's net income attributable to mothers for the years 2024-2026 are 12 billion yuan, 13.4 billion yuan, and 14.9 billion yuan respectively.
According to the Sina Finance APP, Guosen Securities International released a research report stating that it maintains a "buy" rating for CGN Power (01816), predicting the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 88.3 billion yuan, 92 billion yuan, and 97.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7.0%, 4.2%, and 6.3% respectively; the net income attributable to mothers is expected to be 12 billion yuan, 13.4 billion yuan, and 14.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.5%, 11.2%, and 11.1% respectively. The company's electricity generation in 2024 is expected to increase steadily year-on-year, with overall performance for the year expected to remain steady, maintaining a target price of 3.8 Hong Kong dollars.
The main points of Guojing International are as follows:
Achieved revenue of 62.37 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 4.06% year-on-year.
The company achieved a grid-connected electricity volume of 166.89 billion kilowatt-hours in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 4.97% year-on-year. Of this, the grid-connected electricity volume from subsidiaries was 1303.32 kilowatt-hours, an increase of 5.02% year-on-year, and from associated companies was 365.58 kilowatt-hours, an increase of 4.78% year-on-year. The company achieved revenue of 62.37 billion yuan, an increase of 4.06% year-on-year. The non-net profit attributable to mothers was 9.74 billion yuan, an increase of 0.91% year-on-year. The increase in costs is due to the first-time material replacement costs for new units and the start of the provision for spent fuel handling funds after 5 years of operation of some units. It is expected that the company's full-year electricity generation and performance will continue to rise steadily.
The volume of market-based traded electricity has steadily increased, with average electricity prices remaining stable.
The market-based traded electricity volume in the first three quarters was approximately 85.49 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 51.2%, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year. The average price of market-based traded electricity inclusive of tax was approximately 0.39 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of about 1 cent compared to the same period last year, remaining relatively stable.
The newly approved projects are increasing, and the projects under construction are steadily progressing.
In August of this year, the State Council approved 5 new nuclear power projects, totaling 11 units; among them, CGN Power obtained 3 projects with 6 units in total, including Shandong Zhaoyuan Units 1 and 2, Guangdong Lufeng Units 1 and 2, and Zhejiang Cangnan Units 3 and 4. Currently, the company has a sufficient number of 16 nuclear power units under construction, bullish on the growth momentum brought by the accelerated grid connection of new units in the future.
Risk warning: lower than expected electricity generation from units; longer-than-expected maintenance time for units; lower-than-expected electricity prices; slower-than-expected progress in nuclear power plant construction; higher-than-expected nuclear fuel prices; tightening policies in the nuclear power industry.
