归母净利润下滑主要有两方面原因：2023Q3 单季度江西金岭尾泥提锂项目实现利润约3,600 万元，归属于上市公司股东的净利润约1,800 万元，而2024Q3 单季度因碳酸锂行业波动、市场下滑，该项目基本无盈利；二是受常山金石停产影响，以及部分自有矿山进行小规模提质增效整改和技术改造等的影响，本季度单一矿山自产萤石精矿的产量、销量有所下滑。期间费用方面，2024Q3 单季度公司销售费用率为0.64%，同比+0.27 个pct，环比+0.28 个pct；管理费用率为3.88%，同比-0.32 个pct，环比-0.87 个pct；研发费用率为3.73%，同比+1.67 个pct，环比+0.71个pct；财务费用率为2.94%，同比+1.15 个pct，环比-0.58 个pct。Investment highlights:
The Baotou “Selective Integrated” project was put into operation. 2024Q3's revenue in a single quarter increased by 1.83 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, and achieved revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, compared to +58.50% year over year, mainly due to the Baotou “Selective Integration” project, which increased sales volume of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride and fluorite powder; realized net profit of 0.25 billion yuan to mother, +2.04% year over year; gross profit margin of 25.02%, year-on-year, -17.40 pcts. Net sales margin was 14.54%, -8.91 pcts; in terms of period expenses, the company's sales expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.50%, +0.04 pcts year on year; management expenses ratio was 4.68%, -1.31 pcts year on year; R&D expenses rate was 2.96%, -0.18 pcts year on year; financial expenses rate was 2.87%, year on year +0.68 pcts year on year. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's net cash flow from operating activities was 0.37 billion yuan, +81.75% over the same period. It was mainly due to the increase in sales volume of the Baotou “Selective Integration” project, an increase in sales repayments, and a relatively good cash flow from operating activities.
In the 2024Q3 quarter, the company achieved operating income of 0.711 billion yuan, +19.39% year over month, and +6.05% month on month; realized net profit to mother was 0.083 billion yuan, or -30.88% year on month, and -22.71% month on month.
There are two main reasons for the decline in net profit due to the 2023Q3 Jiangxi Jinling tailings lithium extraction project in the single quarter, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 18 million yuan, while the 2024Q3 single quarter was basically unprofitable due to fluctuations in the lithium carbonate industry and market decline; second, due to the suspension of production of Changshan Jinshi and small-scale rectification and technological transformation of some of its own mines, the production and sales volume of fluorite concentrate produced by a single mine declined this quarter. In terms of period expenses, the 2024Q3 company's sales expenses rate in a single quarter was 0.64%, +0.27 pcts year over month; management expense ratio was 3.88%, -0.32 pcts year over year, -0.87 pcts month on month; R&D expenses rate was 3.73%, +1.67 pcts year on year, +0.71 pcts month on month; financial expenses rate was 2.94%, +1.15 pcts year on month, and -0.58 pcts month on month.
Jin'e Bofluorine Chemical Project is put into operation, and production is expected to be gradually released
From January to September 2024, the company's single mining and selection enterprise produced a total of about 0.28 million tons of fluorite products and sold about 0.25 million tons. Production and sales declined from the same period last year, mainly due to the suspension of production by Changshan Jinshi and the impact of small-scale rectification and technological transformation of some of its own mines to improve quality and efficiency within the third quarter. The Baogang Jinshi Mineral Processing Project produced a total of about 0.4 million tons of fluorite powder, with Jinebo Company selling about 0.14 million tons. Production and foreign sales increased over the same period of the previous year; from January to September 2024, the Jin'e Bofluorine Chemical Project produced 0.085 million tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride and sold 0.0825 million tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride; the Jin'e Bofu Fluorine Chemical aluminum fluoride project was successfully tested and obtained qualified products once. By the end of the third quarter of 2024, the Jin'e Fluorine Chemical Project has gone through commissioning, trial production, and continuous optimization of processes and equipment. Currently, production is normal, and production will be gradually released according to market conditions.
The advantages of resources and scale are obvious, and the global layout is actively promoted
Guided by the “resource+technology” two-pronged strategy, the company has carried out a series of layouts around fluorine resources and based on the advantages of mineral processing technology, including from single fluorite mines to co-generation mines, and from home to overseas. The company's size advantage is obvious. The company's overall production capacity and the production capacity of individual mines and beneficiation plants are in a leading position in the industry. As of the first half of 2024, the company's fluorite has resource reserves of about 27 million tons of ore, corresponding to about 13 million tons of minerals, and all of them are single fluorite mines; the company already has a single fluorite mine with a mining license scale of 1.12 million tons/year, with 8 production mines and 7 beneficiation plants. At the same time, the company is actively promoting a global layout. As of the first half of 2024, ODI (Outward Direct Investment) procedures for overseas investment matters for the company's Mongolian project have been completed, the target mining rights transfer has been approved by the Mongolian Bureau of Mineral Resources and Petroleum, and a mining license holder named CM Kings has been obtained.
Profit forecasts and investment ratings estimate that the company's 2024-2026 revenue will be 2.755, 3.892, and 5.052 billion yuan, and net profit to mother will be 0.358, 0.599, and 0.779 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 49, 29, and 22 times, respectively. Considering that the company's fluorite resource reserves rank first in the country, the scale advantage is obvious, the projects under construction are progressing in an orderly manner, and production capacity is gradually being released. We are optimistic about the company's long-term growth. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risks indicate production safety and environmental protection risks; risk of product price fluctuations; risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations; risk of changes in industrial policy; risk of increased market competition; risk of new project commissioning falling short of expectations.
