24Q3 实现营收60.01 亿元，同比+0.04%，环比+3.50%；实现归母净利润2.30 亿元，同比+85.32%，环比+2.53%；扣非归母净利润2.25亿元，同比+121.20%，环比+1.35%；销售毛利率14.64%，同比+1.93pcts，环比-1.35pcts。occurrences
On October 30, the company disclosed its report for the third quarter of 2024.
In the first three quarters of 24, the company achieved revenue of 17.081 billion yuan, +7.38%; net profit to mother of 0.553 billion yuan, +967.83%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.541 billion yuan, +438.98% YoY; and gross sales margin of 14.33%.
24Q3 achieved revenue of 6.001 billion yuan, +0.04% YoY, +3.50% month-on-month; realized net profit of 0.23 billion yuan, +85.32% YoY, +2.53% month-on-month; net profit of 0.225 billion yuan, +121.20% YoY, +1.35% month-on-month; gross sales margin of 14.64%, +1.93pcts YoY, and -1.35pcts month-on-month.
Key investment points
Profitability improved significantly in 24Q3. In the first three quarters of 24, the company achieved revenue of 17.081 billion yuan, +7.38%; net profit to mother of 0.553 billion yuan, +967.83% year over year; net profit without return to mother of 0.541 billion yuan, +438.98% year over year, mainly in the first three quarters of 2024. The semiconductor industry showed an overall recovery trend. The company was aggressive, capacity utilization increased, and operating income increased, especially for high-end products. At the same time, thanks to strengthened management and cost control, the company's overall efficiency has improved significantly. Specifically: After experiencing inventory removal from 2022 to 2023, the semiconductor industry gradually stabilized and healthy inventory levels in 2024. After reaching a high point in Q1 of 2023, the inventory turnover of IC design companies and semiconductor dealers declined for three consecutive quarters and bottomed out in Q4 2023. The average turnover days at the end of Q1 in 2024 decreased by 69.78 days compared to the same period last year, indicating that the industry's inventory removal is progressing smoothly. From the perspective of downstream application areas. The explosion in AI demand led to a rapid rebound in demand for logic and high-end storage. Consumer electronics picked up and recovered; global smartphone sales in the first half of 2024 were 0.575 billion units, up nearly 7.2% year on year; smartphone sales increased 7.4% year on year during the 2024 618 shopping festival in China; according to SEMI statistics, the consumer electronics recovery led to a 2.6% year-on-year drop in global IC inventory levels. In the automotive and industrial sector, overall demand was weak in the first half of 2024. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, automotive and industrial demand is expected to return to growth as the automotive-grade chip and industrial chip markets gradually bottom out. At the same time as the overall recovery of the industry boom, advanced packaging is ushering in accelerated development under the catalyst of the AI revolution. On the one hand, the explosion in AI demand continues to drive demand for advanced packaging; on the other hand, AI computing power is shifting from training to inference and from the cloud to the end side. This trend is also driving the diversification of advanced packaging technology.
It is proposed to indirectly hold shares in lead frame supplier AAMI to accelerate the layout of advanced packaging. On October 16, 2024, the company signed a “Partnership Share Transfer Agreement” with Leading Semiconductor. The company plans to invest 0.2 billion yuan to transfer Chuzhou Guangtai's investment of 146,722,355.58 yuan (accounting for 31.90% of Chuzhou Guangtai's partnership share) held by Leading Semiconductor to indirectly hold shares in lead frame supplier AAMI. AAMI specializes in the design, R&D, production and sales of lead frames.
A lead frame is an important semiconductor packaging material. It uses bonding materials to electrically connect the lead end of the chip's internal circuit to the outer lead wire to form an electrical circuit, and acts as a bridge for connecting to external wires, and is used in most semiconductor products. AAMI has been deeply involved in the field of lead frames for more than 40 years. It has advanced production technology, excellent technical level and strong R&D capabilities. It has accumulated rich product layout, technical reserves and customer resources, and has a strong competitive advantage in high-end application markets such as high precision and high reliability. Its products are widely used in automotive, computing, industrial, communication and consumer semiconductors, and have been highly recognized by leading customers in various segments. It has established stable cooperative relationships with the world's top semiconductor IDM and packaging and testing foundry companies. The investment aims to strengthen the relationship between the company and upstream enterprises in the industrial chain, further improve the stability and safety of the company's supply chain, and continue to strengthen the company's main business, in line with the company's development strategy.
Profit forecasting
We expect the company to achieve operating income of 23.8/28.3/32.8 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, and achieve net profit of 0.77/1.22/1.6 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 2024-2026 PE 68/43/33 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risk of industry and market fluctuations; risk of failure to industrialize new technologies, new processes, and products as scheduled; risk of changes in the supply and price of major raw materials; exchange rate risk; international trade risk.
