24Q3 费用率环比下降，净利率环比提升。根据公司2024 年三季度业绩公告，公司24Q3 净利率为6.6%，同比-1.5pct，环比+3.1pct。24Q3 SG&A/研发费用率分别为7.8%/6.0%，同比分别+0.5/-2.1pct，环比分别-1.1/-3.5pct。研发费用率环比下降主要由于新产品及技术的设计及研发成本减少以及雇员薪酬减少。Ideal Auto announced audited financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2024 (hereinafter referred to as the “2024 Third Quarter Results Announcement”). 24Q3 achieved total revenue of 42.9 billion yuan, +24% YoY, +35% month-on-month; realized net profit of 2.8 billion yuan, +0.3% YoY, +156% month-on-month. The company expects 24Q4 vehicle deliveries to be between 0.16 million and 0.17 million vehicles, with a year-on-year range of +21.4% to +29.0%; the corresponding revenue is about 43.2 billion yuan to 45.9 billion yuan, and the year-on-year range is +3.5% to +10.0%.
Delivery volume increased in 24Q3 compared to the same period last year. According to the company's results announcement for the third quarter of 2024, 24Q3 delivered a total of 0.153 million new vehicles, +45% year over year and +41% month over month. According to our estimates, the company's 24Q3 bicycle revenue was about 0.27 million yuan, -0.049 million yuan year-on-year, and -0.009 million yuan month-on-month. We believe that the year-on-month decline in the company's 24Q3 bicycle revenue is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of the ideal L6 for models below 0.3 million yuan in total 24Q3 delivery volume. According to the wholesale sales data of the Passenger Federation, the 24Q3 Ideal L6/L7/L8/L9 delivered 7.5/0.034/0.019/0.022 million vehicles respectively, accounting for 49%/23%/13%/14% of 24Q3 deliveries, +49/-15/-20/-16pct year-on-year, respectively, and +13/-6/-2/-4pct, respectively.
Continued cost reduction and efficiency increased, and 24Q3 gross margin increased month-on-month. According to the company's results announcement for the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved significant results in cost reduction and efficiency. The 24Q3 gross margin was 21.5%, -0.5pct year on year, and +2.0pct month-on-month.
The 24Q3 fee rate declined month-on-month, and the net interest rate increased month-on-month. According to the company's results announcement for the third quarter of 2024, the company's 24Q3 net margin was 6.6%, -1.5pct year on year, and +3.1 pct month-on-month. 24Q3 SG&A/R&D cost rates were 7.8%/6.0%, +0.5/-2.1pct year over year, and -1.1/-3.5pct month-on-month, respectively. The month-on-month decline in R&D expenses was mainly due to a reduction in design and R&D costs for new products and technologies and a reduction in employee remuneration.
The end-to-end +VLM smart driving system has started full promotion, and I am optimistic that smart driving will drive high-end. With the full launch of Ideal Wutu NOA in July '24 and the further upgrade of active safety capabilities, the share of orders for the AD Max version continued to increase. In particular, for models over 0.3 million yuan, the AD Max version accounted for nearly 70%.
As of 24M9, the total number of smart driving users of Ideal Auto has reached 0.96 million, the cumulative smart driving mileage has reached 2.4 billion kilometers, and the NOA mileage has reached 1.2 billion kilometers. On October 23, '24, Ideal Car's end-to-end +VLM dual-system intelligent driving solution was fully promoted with the OTA6.4 version of the vehicle system. We are optimistic that the strengthening of intelligent capabilities will further drive the company's high-end configuration sales increase.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: We expect the company to sell 0.51/0.71/0.85 million new vehicles in 2024/25/26, respectively, with revenue of 146/206.4/250.2 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 7.6/13.4/18.9 billion yuan, and EPS of 3.58/6.30/8.92 yuan respectively. Considering that the NEV industry is still developing rapidly, we used the PS method to value the company. The closing market value on November 6, 2024 was 1.3/0.9/0.7 times PS in 2024/25/26, respectively. Referring to comparable companies, we gave the company 1.4-1.5 times PS in 2024, with a corresponding reasonable value range of HK$105.56-113.10 (converted at the exchange rate of HK$1 = RMB 0.9124). Maintain an “better than the market” rating.
Risk warning: new car sales fall short of expectations; raw material prices have risen sharply; investment in pure electric models has exceeded expectations.
