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交银国际:第十批国采启动报量 看好板块情绪改善+医保谈判落地后的估值修复

Bocom Intl: The tenth batch of national procurement starts with reported volumes. Bullish on sector sentiment improvement + valuation recovery after medical insurance negotiations land.

Zhitong Finance ·  Nov 7 09:19

Bocom Intl key recommended Akeso (09926), Simcere Pharma (02096), Legend Biotech (LEGN.US), Innoventive Drugs (01952), and Hutchmed (China) (00013).

Wisdom Finance APP has learned that Bocom Intl released a research report stating that on November 1st, the Pharmaceutical Joint Procurement Office issued a notice on the information submission for the 10th batch of national organized drug centralized procurement, officially launching the 10th batch of national procurement. The 10th batch includes 62 varieties with 263 specifications, with a total of 37 large varieties of injections (about 60%).

The report states that the on-site negotiations for the 2024 National Medical Insurance Drug List adjustment have concluded. The new version of the medical insurance drug list is expected to be officially released to the public at the end of November and will be implemented starting from January 1st next year. The negotiation took place from October 27 to 30 at noon, involving a total of 127 companies and 162 drugs, including 117 drugs outside the medical insurance list and 45 renegotiated drugs within the medical insurance list.

The number of varieties in the 10th batch of nationally procured drugs is the highest in history, and the entry threshold is the highest in history. It is expected that there will be a higher elimination intensity in the future, bringing certain competitive pressure to pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, the proportion of injections in this round of national procurement has also reached a historical high. As drugs that heavily rely on hospital development, the competitive landscape for related pharmaceutical companies may change in the future. Recently, the pharmaceutical sector has experienced a slight rebound after significant volatility. Considering that the sector's valuation is still at historical lows, coupled with the upcoming favorable macro policies and liquidity improvement, the bank believes there is still further room for recovery.

The bank stated that it continues to focus on recommending potential beneficiaries of medical insurance negotiations, including Akeso (09926), Simcere Pharma (02096), Legend Biotech (LEGN.US), Innoventive Drugs (01952), and Hutchmed (China) (00013), which are innovative drug symbols with rich short-term catalysts, high profit growth or clear profit-loss balance points, and significant valuation repair elasticity. It also suggests paying attention to: 1) privately-owned medical service and cosmetic medical symbols with strong consumer attributes; 2) small and medium-sized innovative pharmaceutical companies with significant deviations in market cap and fundamentals, the rebound elasticity after liquidity improvement will be quite considerable.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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