2025 展望：新势力迎新车周期，海外智能化有望推进展望明年，蔚来、小米、理想、华为、特斯拉等几大客户有望迎来新车型发布周期，奠定公司收入稳健增长基调。公司在墨西哥、捷克等自动化生产线改造与新产品产线建设，有望增强公司在欧美定点获取能力，同时提升伴随国内主机厂出海落地能力。随着通用、福特、大众等公司主要海外大客户的新车型项目智能座舱推进，有望看到海外业务的加快成长。3Q24 Revenue Growth Steady, Profitability Exceeded Expectations
Shangsheng Electronics's 3Q24 revenue was 0.756 billion yuan (yoy +20.09% /qoq +17.98%), and the gross margin reached 28.79% (yoy+3.97pct/qoq+3.89pct), achieving the best gross profit margin in a single quarter since 4Q21; ultimately achieving net profit of 0.078 billion yuan (yoy +115.92% /qoq +47.97%). As a global leader in automotive acoustics, we are optimistic that the company will benefit from the upgraded cockpit acoustics configuration, and it is expected that it will follow the pace of new major customers and overseas expansion to release results. Next year, several major customers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Ideal, Huawei, and Tesla are expected to usher in a new model release cycle, setting the tone for steady revenue growth. As raw materials and production efficiency improve, gross margin is expected to maintain a good level. Maintain a buy rating.
3Q24 review: Revenue grew steadily, and gross margin exceeded expectations. 3Q24 achieved revenue of 0.756 billion yuan (yoy +20.09% /qoq +17.98%), benefiting from good growth during the seasonal peak season for automobiles. Under the pressure of price reduction in the parts industry chain, the company relied on methods such as raw material cost reduction, automated upgrading of fund-raising production lines, scale effects and efficiency control, etc., and the overall gross margin of 1-3Q24 maintained a good steady recovery rhythm and achieved 26.31% (yoy+2.37pct). Of these, 3Q24 gross margin reached 28.79%, exceeding our previous forecast for the full year of 24 (25.4%). We believe that the gross margin of mainly power amplifier electronic products has improved quite well. The overall expenditure situation on the expense side was stable, with a net interest rate of 10.14% (yoy+4.50pct/qoq+2.05pct).
2025 outlook: New forces welcome the new car cycle, and overseas intelligence is expected to advance next year. Several major customers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Ideal, Huawei, and Tesla are expected to usher in a new model release cycle, setting the tone for steady revenue growth in the company. The company's automated production line transformation and new product production line construction in Mexico, the Czech Republic, etc., is expected to enhance the company's ability to acquire designated locations in Europe and the US, and at the same time enhance the ability to launch overseas with domestic OEMs. As GM, Ford, Volkswagen and other major overseas customers advance their new smart cockpit projects, it is expected to see the accelerated growth of overseas business.
The target price is 45.80 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating
We are optimistic that the company, as a major cockpit acoustics company, will benefit from intelligent development to achieve steady growth. We maintain our 24/25/26E revenue forecast of 2.91/3.6/4.26 billion; we expect gross margin to improve to 26.1/26.0/ 25.9% (previous value: 25.4/25.4/25.5%), and estimated net profit to mother of 0.27/0.34/0.42 billion yuan (previous value: 0.25/0.32/0.4 billion yuan). In response, 2025E 21.4X PE was given (taking a comparable company average value; the main reason for the discount was eliminated because the company showed better profitability), and the company was given a target price of 45.80 yuan to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream customer sales fell short of expectations, and industry competition caused orders and gross margins to fall short of expectations.
