供应链运营业务受宏观形势影响有所收缩，但Q3 业绩显著修复。2024 年1-9 月供应链运营业务实现营收4146.7 亿元，同比减少22.2%；归母净利润22.4 亿元，同比减少10.2%，主要由于受到宏观经济形势、大宗商品价格波动及传统汽车行业疲软影响，公司部分大宗商品集采分销业务和汽车销售业务利润下降。其中，2024 年Q1、Q2、Q3 供应链业务归母净利润分别为7.7、6.5、8.2 亿元，同比分别为-8.8%、-21.5%、-0.3%，Q3业绩有所修复，环比增加26.9%。Incident: On November 3, 2024, the company issued the “Notice Concerning the Termination of the Placement of Shares to Original Shareholders and Withdrawal of Application Documents”.
Due to changes in the internal and external environment, the company terminated the allotment plan. In April 2024, the company announced an allotment plan. It plans to distribute 3.5 shares to all A shareholders according to the ratio of 3.5 shares for every 10 shares. The original plan was to raise no more than RMB 4.98 billion, all of which will be used for the company's supply chain operation business to supplement working capital and repay bank loans. The controlling shareholder C&D Group promised to fully subscribe for the allotable shares in this allotment plan in cash. In view of changes in the internal and external environment, and due to factors such as the company's internal situation and development plans, the company decided to terminate the current share placement to the original shareholders and withdraw the application documents. We believe that the cancellation of the allotment will reduce short-term dilution pressure, protect the interests of small and medium shareholders, and help boost market confidence.
C&D real estate sales rankings have improved, and the scale of land acquisition is among the highest in the industry. On the sales side, according to Kerui data, C&D Real Estate and MediaTek Group achieved full-caliber sales of 1040 billion yuan and 24.3 billion yuan respectively from January to October 2024, down 28.6% and 50.3% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the sales decline of C&D Real Estate was less than the 34.8% decline of the top 100 real estate companies. As of October 2024, C&D Real Estate ranked 7th in sales, up one place from 2023. On the land acquisition side, the company steadily expanded its savings in the first half of the year. The amount of land acquisition of full caliber land was 38.76 billion yuan (YoY -46.3%), the value of full caliber goods was 68.6 billion yuan, and the land acquisition amount/sales amount reached 52%. The scale and intensity of land acquisition was among the highest in the industry. The company is highly focused on land acquisition, and the soil storage structure has been continuously optimized. In the first half of the year, the share of first-tier and second-tier land acquisition amounts reached 98%. By the end of the first half of the year, unsold land storage accounted for 76.9%, an increase of 3.3 pct over the end of the previous year.
Supply chain operations contracted due to the macroeconomic situation, but Q3 results recovered significantly. From January to September 2024, the supply chain operation business achieved revenue of 414.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2%; net profit to mother was 2.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.2% year-on-year. Mainly due to the impact of macroeconomic conditions, commodity price fluctuations and weakness in the traditional automobile industry, profits from some of the company's commodity collection and distribution business and automobile sales business declined. Among them, net profit from Q1, Q2, and Q3 supply chain business in 2024 was 0.77, 0.65, and 0.82 billion yuan respectively, which was -8.8%, -21.5%, and -0.3% year-on-year respectively. The Q3 results were repaired, increasing 26.9% from month to month.
Investment advice: Maintain a “buy” rating. The company's real estate business has a high-quality land storage layout, and sales and land acquisition remained resilient during the downturn of the industry; the supply chain sector maintained its existing business advantages while accelerating its international layout, and its market share continued to increase. However, considering that the current real estate market has not stabilized, the supply chain is still under pressure due to the macroeconomic situation, and Macalline's drag, we adjusted the company's profit forecast. The company's revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is 691/712.5/734 billion yuan, respectively; net profit to mother is 3.18/3.98/4.48 billion yuan; the corresponding EPS is 1.08/1.35/1.52 yuan; and the corresponding PE is 9.1/7.3/6.4 times.
Risk warning: Relaxation of real estate policies falls short of expectations, improvement in gross margin of development business falls short of expectations, and risk of commodity price fluctuations.
