分品类：优质客户订单放量，棉袜&无缝均实现强势增长。棉袜：预计Q3 收入+28.8%至5.65 亿，创单季度历史新高，在高基数下仍实现高增预计主因以优衣库、HBI 为代表的优质客户下单旺盛带动量价双升。但利润受到汇率波动、异常天气影响生产等因素拖累，棉袜净利率同比-2pct 至16.3%。无缝：预计Q3 收入+69%至1.9 亿，增幅较大主要受益于2023Q3 低基数，以及新老客户订单放量，此外优衣库的出货节奏调整也使其今年Q3订单增长亮眼。但利润端受兴安工厂管理问题拖累预计亏损较多，净利率仅2.8%，相比去年同期有所扭亏但环比-6.1pct。Description of the event
The company achieved revenue/return/deduction of less than 0.755/0.097/0.095 billion yuan in Q3, +37%/27%/21.9% YoY. Revenue exceeded expectations (15%-20% previously expected), and performance was above the upper limit of expectations (20%-30% previously anticipated). The total revenue for the first three quarters was 1.924/0.263/0.257 billion yuan, +16.0%/31.2%/28.1% YoY.
Incident comments
Categories: High quality customer order volume, cotton socks & seamless all achieved strong growth. Cotton socks: Q3 revenue is expected to be +28.8% to 0.565 billion, a record high in the quarterly order period. The high increase is expected to be achieved even under a high base, mainly due to strong orders from high-quality customers represented by Uniqlo and HBI, driving both volume and price increases. However, profits were dragged down by factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and abnormal weather affecting production, and the net interest rate for cotton socks was -2pct to 16.3% year-on-year. Seamless: Q3 revenue is expected to be +69% to 0.19 billion. The large increase mainly benefits from the low 2023Q3 base and order volume from new and old customers. In addition, Uniqlo's shipping pace adjustments also led to impressive growth in Q3 orders this year. However, the profit side is expected to lose a lot due to management issues at the Xing'an factory. The net interest rate is only 2.8%. Compared with the same period last year, it was -6.1 pct month-on-month.
Profit side: Gross margin stabilized, exchange losses & income tax increases hampered net interest rate performance. The overall gross margin of the company in Q3 was -0.1 pct to 28.5% year on year, and the overall cost ratio remained stable. The overall cost ratio for the period was -0.9 pct, with sales/management/R&D/financial expenses respectively -1.1/-0.6/-0.6/+1.3 pct year on year. Higher exchange losses in Q3 led to financial expenses +0.01 billion year on year. In addition, credit impairment losses were +7.14 million year on year, and income tax increases of 13.74 million combined to drag down net profit. As a result, the company's net profit margin was -1.0pct year-on-year to 12.9%, and the decline was higher than the gross profit margin.
Outlook: In the short term, along with the gradual stabilization of the company's ability to improve efficiency under operating leverage, and both businesses welcome large customer orders, remarkable revenue and performance flexibility, and welcome good layout opportunities. In the long term, it has fully benefited from the dividends of capacity transfer. Under strong R&D and increased production efficiency, cotton socks are becoming more competitive, production capacity planning is optimistic, and seamless profit flexibility is greater. The company's net profit from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 0.33, 0.39, and 0.46 billion yuan, +22%, +19%, and +17% compared to the same period. The corresponding PE is 11.9, 10.0, and 8.6X. It still has a margin of safety and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Overseas macroeconomic fluctuations;
2. Brand inventory removal falls short of expectations;
3. The progress of production capacity investment fell short of expectations.
