维持“增持”评级。2024年前三季度营收1112.42亿元，同比降7.18%；归母净利润17.71 亿元，同比降56.86%，业绩符合预期。考虑钢铁下游需求仍较弱，我们下调公司2024-2026 年归母净利润预测至28.52/32.81/38.06 亿元（原45.68/50.30/56.73 亿元），对应EPS 为0.41/0.47/0.55 元。参考可比公司，我们给予公司2025 年约0.73 倍PB 估值，维持目标价为6.13 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's results for the third quarter of 2024 were in line with expectations. The company's product structure continues to be optimized, which is conducive to continuous improvement of profitability; the company's dividend ratio ranks among the highest in the industry, and the dividend rate is expected to increase further as capital expenditure pressure falls.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 111.242 billion yuan, down 7.18% year on year; net profit to mother was 1.771 billion yuan, down 56.86% year on year, and performance was in line with expectations. Considering that downstream demand for steel is still weak, we lowered the company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast to 2.852/3.281/3.806 billion yuan (originally 4.568/5.03/5.673 billion yuan), and the corresponding EPS is 0.41/0.47/0.55 yuan. Referring to comparable companies, we gave the company a PB valuation of about 0.73 times in 2025, maintained a target price of 6.13 yuan, and maintained an “gain” rating.
Profitability remains at a good level in the industry. The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 6.97%, 1.59%, down 2.89 and 1.82 percentage points year on year. Although the profitability declined year on year, it remained at a good level of the industry. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total profit loss of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to September 2024 was 34.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.9 billion yuan, that is, the overall profit of the industry changed from profit to loss. We believe that the company's ability to maintain relatively good profitability mainly depends on product structure advantages and strong ability to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
The company's product structure is continuously optimized, which is conducive to further improving profitability. The company's VAMA Phase II high-end automotive board project was put into operation at the end of 2022, adding 0.45 million tons/year galvanizing production capacity (original production capacity 1.15 million tons/year), which is expected to reach production in 2024; Valin Liangang Cold Rolled Silicon Steel Phase I Project was put into operation in June 2023, adding 0.2 million tons/year of unoriented silicon steel products, which is expected to reach production in 2024. In addition, the company's cold-rolled silicon steel phase II one-step project is progressing in an orderly manner. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in the first quarter of 2025, adding 0.1 million tons/year to silicon steel production capacity. We expect the company to gradually release production capacity for relatively high value-added products such as galvanized automobile sheets and silicon steel, which will help the company continue to improve its profitability.
As capital expenditure is reduced, the company's dividend ratio is expected to increase further. The company's dividend ratio in 2023 was 31.29%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous month; the corresponding dividend rate was 4.84%, ranking among the highest in the industry. In recent years, the company's capital expenditure has mainly focused on the three categories of ultra-low emission transformation, production line upgrading and product restructuring, and digital intelligence. Of the fixed asset investment in the company's newly started projects in 2024, ultra-low emission transformation projects accounted for 49%, product upgrade projects accounted for 45%, and the remaining 6% were digital intelligent transformation and upgrading projects. By the end of 2025, the company's ultra-low emission transformation and silicon steel projects will be completed and put into operation one after another. We expect the pressure on the company's capital expenditure to decrease significantly after 2025, and the company's dividend rate and dividend rate are expected to increase further.
Risk warning: The progress of the project under construction fell short of expectations, and the dividend ratio did not increase as expected.
