出口量环比持平，高端产品占比提升。根据海关数据，2024 年Q3 中国润滑油添加剂累计出口6.95 万吨，环比+4.08%，出口均价为20234 元/吨，环比+3.96%；累计进口5.38 万吨，环比-7.26%，进口均价为28674 元/吨，环比-4.16%。河南省润滑油添加剂出口量为26200 吨，同比-16.35%，环比-2.76%，出口均价为20563 元/吨，环比+4.07%。产品价格的提升主要系公司产品结构改善所致，高端品类的复合剂逐步放量。Description of the event
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In 24Q3, the company achieved revenue of 0.8 billion yuan, -1.71% YoY, +1.79% month-on-month, realized net profit of 0.181 billion yuan, -9.84% YoY, +9.06% month-on-month, and realized net profit without deduction of 0.164 billion yuan, -15.61% YoY and +0.35% month-on-month.
Incident reviews
The export volume remained flat month-on-month, and the share of high-end products increased. According to customs data, in Q3 2024, China exported a total of 0.0695 million tons of lubricant additives, with an average export price of 2,034 yuan/ton, +3.96% month-on-month; cumulative imports of 0.0538 million tons, -7.26% month-on-month, and the average import price was 28,674 yuan/ton, -4.16% month-on-month. The export volume of lubricant additives in Henan Province was 26,200 tons, -16.35% year-on-year, -2.76% month-on-month, and the average export price was 20,563 yuan/ton, +4.07% month-on-month. The increase in product prices is mainly due to improvements in the company's product structure, and high-end categories of compound agents are gradually being released.
Lower crude oil prices led to a weakening of raw materials and an improvement in the quality of the company's profits. According to Wind, the average price of 24Q3 crude oil Brent was 76.39 US dollars/barrel, -10.16% month-on-month, and base oil was 8104 yuan/ton, -4.78% month-on-month. The company's gross margin was 36.72%, +0.75 pct month-on-month, and the company's net margin was 22.76%, +1.57 pct month-on-month. In addition, the company's expense ratio during the 24Q3 period was 11.31%, +0.57pct month-on-month, mainly due to the month-on-month increase in financial expenses.
Investment advice
We adjusted the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to 0.708/0.879/0.967 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the company's market value of 12.9 billion yuan on November 5, and PE for 2024-2026 was 18.3\ 14.7\ 13.4 times, respectively, to maintain a “buy-B” rating.
Risk warning
The risk of raw material price increases, overseas market policy risks, and the risk that compound product certification cannot be successfully passed.
