费率管控成效显著，资产负债结构维持稳健。2024 年前三季度，公司录得管理费率1.49%（yoy-0.28pct），销售费率2.81%（yoy-0.05pct），公司费率管控成效显著。根据Wind 数据，截至2024 年三季度末，公司剔预资产负债率60.4%、净负债率48.3%、现金短债比2.07 倍，“三道红线”稳居绿档，公司财务情况稳健，具备穿越周期的长期发展能力。Incident: China Merchants Shekou released the 2024Q3 report. The company achieved cumulative revenue of 78.01 billion yuan (yoy +2.9%) and net profit of 2.6 billion yuan (yoy -31.0%) for the first three quarters of 2024.
Revenue increased year over year, and the carry-over of high land price projects put pressure on profitability. The company achieved cumulative revenue of 78.01 billion yuan (yoy +2.9%) and net profit of 2.6 billion yuan (yoy -31.0%) in the first three quarters of 2024; achieved revenue of 26.74 billion yuan (yoy +9.6%) and net profit of 1.18 billion yuan (yoy -26.8%) in the third quarter of a single quarter. The short-term pressure on the company's profitability was mainly due to a decline in gross margin due to the carry-over of high-land price projects. The company recorded a gross profit margin of 9.95% (yoy-8.3pct) in the first three quarters of 2024. However, in recent years, the company's investment has focused on core cities, the certainty of elimination is high, future profitability is guaranteed, and the company's gross margin is expected to rise.
The full-caliber sales amount is in the top five, and there are plenty of resources to be carried over. According to Kerry statistics, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company's full-caliber sales volume was 145.14 billion yuan, ranking fifth, and sales remained in the leading position. As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, the company's contract debt was 191.32 billion yuan, which can cover 1.09 times the 2023 revenue (175.01 billion yuan). The company has abundant resources to be carried over, the performance reservoir remains high, and future revenue is guaranteed.
Rate control has achieved remarkable results, and the balance and liability structure remains stable. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company recorded a management rate of 1.49% (yoy-0.28pct) and a sales rate of 2.81% (yoy-0.05pct). The company's rate control results were remarkable. According to Wind data, as of the end of the third quarter of 2024, the company excluded a balance ratio of 60.4%, a net debt ratio of 48.3%, and 2.07 times the short-term cash debt ratio. The “three red lines” remained stable. The company's financial situation was stable, and it had the ability to develop over a long period of time.
Profit forecasting and valuation: The company's sales are at the top, with abundant resources to be carried over. At the same time, the balance and liability structure is stable, and it has the ability to develop over a long period of time. We expect the company's 24-26 revenue to be 181.3, 192.102, and 210.958 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 5.879, 6.135, and 7.201 billion yuan, corresponding PE of 18.28, 17.51, and 14.92 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the real estate market continues to be sluggish; policy implementation falls short of expectations; rate control is not effective
