24Q3 煤炭业务收入同比提升，毛利同比降幅收窄显著24Q1-3 煤炭业务收入1211.6 亿元，同比-1.5%，其中24Q3 为390.9亿元，同比+9.6%；24Q1-3 煤炭业务毛利420.6 亿元，同比-8.1%，其中24Q3 为135.3 亿元，同比-0.2%。Key points of investment:
The company disclosed 2024Q3 results:
24Q1-3 achieved revenue of 125.43 billion yuan, -1.6% year over year; net profit to mother was 15.94 billion yuan, -1.5% year over year, with a net interest rate of 12.7%, the same as the previous year. Looking at 24Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 40.69 billion yuan, +10.7%/-8.1% month-on-month; net profit to mother of 5.39 billion yuan, +17.1%/-8.8% year-on-month, and a net interest rate of 13.2% to mother, +0.7pct year-on-year.
24Q3 coal business revenue increased year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline in gross profit narrowed significantly 24Q1-3 coal business revenue of 121.16 billion yuan, of which 24Q3 was 39.09 billion yuan, +9.6% year on year; 24Q1-3 coal business gross profit was 42.06 billion yuan, or -8.1% year on year, of which 24Q3 was 13.53 billion yuan, or -0.2% year over year.
1) Production and sales volume increased and decreased: 24Q1-3 raw coal production was 0.13 billion tons, +2.8% year over year, of which 24Q3 was 41.37 million tons, +2.9%/-8.0% year on month. 24Q1-3 coal sales volume was 0.2 billion tons, +5.1% YoY, of which 24Q3 was 64.4 million tons, +11.3%/-8.1% YoY; 24Q1-3 sold 0.13 billion tons of self-produced coal, +2.4% YoY, of which 24Q3 was 42.6 million tons, +5.8%/+0.3% YoY.
2) The decline in the price of 24Q3 tons of coal narrowed, and gross margin fell slightly compared to 24H1: the price of 24Q1-3 tons of coal was 618 yuan/ton, -6.2% year-on-year, of which 24Q3 was 607 yuan. -1.5% YoY. The cost of 24Q1-3 tons of coal was 404 yuan/ton, of which 24Q3 was 397 yuan/ton, +3.9% year-on-year, an improvement over 24H1's 407 yuan/ton. The gross profit of 24Q1-3 tons of coal was 215 yuan/ton, -12.5% year on year, gross profit margin of 34.7% year on year, -2.5 pct year on year; of these, 24Q3 was 210 yuan/ton, -10.4% year on year, gross profit margin of 34.6%, and -3.4 pct year on year.
Develop “coal and electricity integration” and continue to have high dividends
On September 5, 2024, the company signed an “Asset Transfer Intent Agreement” with the controlling shareholder Shaanxi Coal Group to transfer all of the shares of Shaanxi Coal Electric Power Group to the company. After the transfer is completed, the company will extend the industrial chain, which is conducive to stable profits.
On August 30, 2024, the company announced an interim dividend of 0.109 yuan per share (tax included). The company promises a dividend ratio of not less than 60% for 2022 to 2024, and a dividend ratio of 60%-62% for 2021-2023; based on the 2024 company's dividend ratio of 60%, the dividend rate as of November 5, 2024 is 5.3%.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
We forecast the company's 2024-2026 net profit of 21.34/23.23/24.22 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 2.20/2.40/2.50 yuan/share. Considering that the company has an endowment of high-quality coal resources, the coal mining business has a low cost advantage. The long-term cooperation account is relatively high, the performance stability is strong. Continued high dividends focus on investor returns, and combined market value management assessments to promote valuation repair of central state-owned enterprises and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Coal production falls short of expectations; coal consumption falls short of expectations; coal imports exceed expectations
