Core views
The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.04 billion yuan, -1.7% YoY, net profit to mother 0.183 billion yuan, +13.1% YoY, or 0.176 billion yuan after deduction, +24.2% YoY. Among them, 2024Q3 revenue was 0.394 billion yuan, -5.6% year on year, net profit to mother 0.067 billion yuan, -6.3% year over year, not 0.065 billion yuan after deduction, -1.0% year on year. We estimate that in 2024Q3 the company shipped 0.023 million tons of carbon tube slurry, up 44% year on year and 10% month on month. Net profit per ton was 0.0029 million/ton, flat month-on-month. The company is actively introducing new products such as single-wall pipes and related composite products, and demand for fast charging is expected to continue to grow in 2025.
occurrences
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report.
Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.04 billion yuan, -1.7% YoY, net profit to mother 0.183 billion yuan, +13.1% YoY, or 0.176 billion yuan after deduction, +24.2% YoY.
Among them, 2024Q3 revenue was 0.394 billion yuan, -5.6% YoY, +16.0% month-on-month, net profit to mother 0.067 billion yuan, -6.3% YoY, +8.7% month-on-month, and 0.065 billion yuan after deduction, -1.0% YoY and +8.5% month-on-month.
Brief review
Shipments: Shipments of 2024Q3 carbon tube slurry continued to grow year on month.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's carbon nanotube slurry shipments increased by more than 40% year on year, corresponding to 0.059 million tons. Among them, we estimate that 2024Q3 shipments were 0.023 million tons, up 44% year on year and 10% month on month.
Profitability: Net profit per ton remained stable month-on-month.
We estimate that in 2024Q3, the company's net profit per ton was 0.0029 million/ton, which was flat from month to month, and the structure of products from generation to generation remained stable.
Outlook: Demand for carbon tube slurry continues to grow due to fast charging, and new products are being actively introduced.
In terms of shipment volume, the company is expected to ship more than 0.08 million tons of carbon tube slurry in 2024. Benefiting from the continuous increase in the fast charging penetration rate in 2025, it is expected that shipments will continue to grow at a level higher than the average growth rate of the lithium battery industry.
In terms of new products, the company's single-wall pipes and related composite products are being actively introduced to relevant customers. According to client feedback, the company's single-wall tube-related products have cost performance advantages. Currently, the main target customers are first-class battery manufacturers in China, Japan, and South Korea. At the same time, with the downstream market's demand for fast charging and other performance, the company is actively launching new products that meet relevant high-performance battery requirements and have cost performance advantages. Currently, this new product is also being actively introduced into mainstream battery manufacturers at home and abroad, and some domestic customers have now ordered 100 tons.
In terms of overseas sales, the company has now been able to supply leading Japanese customers. Mainstream Korean customers have now shipped products, and progress is good.
Profit forecast: The company's net profit is expected to be 0.259 and 0.346 billion yuan in 2024-25, corresponding to 40 or 30 times PE.
Risk analysis
1) Downstream NEV production and sales fall short of expectations: the sales side may be affected by weak demand and fall short of expectations; the production side may be affected by large fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, power restrictions, etc., which in turn affects the company's related business shipments and profitability.
2) The rise in raw material prices exceeded expectations: Since 2021, raw material prices have fluctuated greatly in stages. High prices and instability have had a certain impact on terminal demand, while at the same time disrupting the company's short-term performance.
3) The company's key projects fall short of expectations: As a participant in the new energy circuit, the promotion of key projects is the key to supporting revenue and profit, and is also a reflection of the company's growth. Failure to advance key projects as expected will affect current and long-term performance.